SVP and Cowherd only pick against the spread, so I assumed $1K per bet and -110 odds. To make it apples to apples, here are their winning percentages on only spread bets for this season:

Bill Simmons: 0.526, 30-24-3
Scott Van Pelt: 0.512, 42-39-1
Colin Cowherd: 0.476, 40-42-2

While Bill has the advantage here by actually incorporating wager amounts into his bit, here are the ROI rankings: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/groups/5fd8efce9d4745001726022e

Interesting tidbits from the analysis:

Bill
- BS was doing pretty good before tanking hard the last couple weeks
- Teasers (-26% ROI) and parlay (-25% ROI) were the main cause of a negative result
- Spread (+2.2% ROI) and moneyline (+120% ROI) bets were positive on the year
- Performs much better on favorites (+18% ROI) than dogs (-26% ROI)
- Has made the most betting on the Rams (+44% ROI), least on the Cowboys (-100% ROI)
- Has made the most betting against the Eagles (+91% ROI), least against the Bills (-54% ROI)
- Bill's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fa40a5d27cf0c0017e2797b
SVP
- Primarily focuses on college football (-5% ROI), but does better on NFL (+6% ROI)
- SVP's main thing is betting on college dogs, but is actually negative on the year on dogs (-3% ROI), positive on favorites (3% ROI)
- He is much better on home teams (+4% ROI), than away (-13% ROI)
- Has lost the most betting against Texas A&M, otherwise spreads his bets around too much to learn a ton about his tendencies on teams
- SVP's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fd817059d474500172601d6
Colin
- Cowherd’s record was impeccable on the 4 teams he bets on the most - Dolphins, Bucs, Rams & Bills (16-4-1, +50% ROI)
- Has made the most betting on the Bills (91% ROI), lost the most on the Falcons (-100% ROI)
- Has made the most betting against the Chargers (73% ROI), lost the most against the Saints (-100% ROI)
- Performs better on home teams (+8% ROI) than away teams (-25% ROI)
- Colin's full dashboard: https://app.gohedgetracker.com/insights/use5fd968e506d00e00177fe857

The below is a weekly piece we put out for our members - Core Plays but we are offering most of our content free this weekend for anyone that is interested in our approach. Content will be made available to anyone who signs up for a free account at dailyboogie.com. However, please check out the preview below and let us know who you're targeting in your contests this week.

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Fades will be listed as players in which we'll either be far lower than the field on or just completely off of in anything other than team stacks.
YPT = Yards Per Target
ROO = Range of Outcomes
YPRR = Yards Per Route Run
aDOT = Average Depth of Target
YAC = Yards After Catch
DVOA = Defense-Adjusted Value over Average
TT= Team Total
POWN= Projected Ownership
aFPA= Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
EPA= Expected Points Added
RACR= Receiver Air Conversion Ratio
WOPR= Weighted Opportunity Rating
For those of you playing Single-Entry, 3 Max, 5 Max, or 20 Max: the players listed in the first two tiers are the ones to focus on the most. Ideally, you would sprinkle in some of the players listed in the 3rd Tie Dart Throw range to help diversify your player pool.
Please adjust accordingly depending on the type of contest you're entering. While we may advise you to stay clear of the obvious, more popular plays in large-field GPPs, feel free to mix and match those type of plays in smaller-field GPPs and Cash Games.

QB Core

Primary Tier

R.Wilson: I don't care if SF has a good defense. None. Especially if Carson and/or Hyde miss this game, SEA will be forced to be even more pass friendly. Also, I actually like SF's chances to score some points on this horrific SEA Pass D. To ease any concern, Russ is currently avg. 10 yards per attempt at a nearly 80% clip vs. Zone. Guess who runs Zone D at a Top 5 rate? The Niners.

Secondary Tier

R.Tannehill: With his price increasing every week (DK), we will likely see POWN held in check. This game will likely determine how my week goes as I plan to be all over it in the majority of my lineups. I've said this over and over again, but I'm just so impressed with TEN's willingness to push tempo. With a fast pace, and incredibly efficient performances every week, Tannehill will continue to be featured in Core Plays.
J.Burrow: His price oddly didn't really spike on any site, and that's fine by me. The #1 leader in drop backs in the NFL will be in a matchup where both sides like to push the pace. Mixon looks like he's going to miss another week, making the CIN Passing Game all the more obvious of a play. If we throw out the BAL game, Burrow has literally never scored less than 17 DK points, even in matchups that were a lot less favorable game environments.
P.Mahomes: Mahomes has provided enough data to see that he does put up top tier points in these surefire blowouts. KC will score 4 TDs before the end of the 3rd Quarter (if not sooner). We just need to hope we don't see those fluke Special Teams and Defensive TDs like last week which ended up being Mahomes worst fantasy output EVER. Not exaggerating, it was his lowest output in pass attempts, rushing yards, yards passing, with only 1 TD.

Third Tier

L.Jackson: I dont think Jackson is going to be viewed as anything more than a "ah maybe I'll throw him in a lineup at the end". Half a season removed from one of the greatest fantasy seasons we've ever seen, the regression bug has caught up to Jackson. Even then, the guy went from #1 Points per drop back to a mere 3rd best. People are acting as if he's fallen out of the top 10. Tough matchup? Sure. But go ahead and take a look at what games have led to Jackson's greatest outputs this year? CLE, WSH, and PHI. All have some of the better D-Line's in the league and they couldn't do anything to stop him. Another bonus here, the fact that this matchup should be competitive in the majority of ROOs. An elite talent being priced down to the 4th highest priced at the position, all while still leading a team that has a healthy 25+ implied point total.
J.Garoppolo: Any QB facing SEA has to be mentioned. Jimmy isn't your typical every week DFS plug and play but he does fit the mold of an ideal GPP play. He checks off all the boxes we want for DFS QBs in 2020: Cheap, BOOM matchup, prone to spike weeks that include ceiling games, and oh.. he might be low owned as well.
A.Rodgers: I usually don't like chasing ceiling performances but there's no way I'm going to avoid ARod here. Even so, there are some troubling angles this game could see. The good: GB ranks 2nd in the NFL when it comes to scoring per-snap. They also rank in the top half in neutral-situation passing rate. The bad: Both offenses are in the bottom when it comes to pace and plays run. GB averages just 63.8 plays per game (20th) and even worse, MIN averages 59.3 (30th). When games are within one score, both teams rank near the bottom in pace (GB 27th, MIN 28th).

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Allen: I initially had Allen in our 2nd Tier, but decided to move him to this group on account of his low POWN%. While this game doesn't have a juicy total and the Pats D ranks near the top in several categories, this is still a QB that has shown tremendous upside in just about every type of matchup. If you've been with us since Week 1, you know where I stand on Allen. Go over the field.
Thursday Update: Similar to Cam below, I had higher hopes for this particular game before finding out the injuries and weather attached. Projections will be lowered on both offenses as well as OWN%.
C.Newton: One. More. Try. Cam was great to us when the season began, but has been a shell of himself since his return from COVID. Usually a game with a total of 45 implied points is a big red flag. There is plenty of downside going with Cam Stacks in NEP vs. BUF, but there's also about a 30% shot this play can be one of the better upside + leverage moves of the week. BUF D has been bad, no way around it. Bills rank towards the back of both phases of defense (DVOA), 28th vs. pass, 24th vs. rush, 29th Overall. When looking at their PFF grades, BUF ranks 28th vs. the Run and jump up to 11th in Pass-Coverage. Clearly, NEP will likely attempt to run it as much as possible. That is where I'm hoping we'll see Cam go back to his near 12 rushes per game average Pre-Covid as opposed to his 7.5 clip these last two weeks.
Thursday Update: I had written the above prior to knowing Edelman is out, and his WR group will be D.Byrd, J.Meyers, and Gunner O. Also that the game appears projected to be played during a monsoon. So I will go ahead and take the aqua color away, I will lower my OWN% to very low levels, but I will NOT be fading him! Yolo.
K.Cousins: While I don't usually look at past matchups data as a part of my weekly assessment of a player, Cousins has played fairly well vs. GB, like always. Just as his favorite weapon, Adam Thielen, has consistently found a way to get the better of GB's secondary. Still, as mentioned above, the game could have a concerning pace issue. The return of D.Cook will likely cause the Vikings to favor the run. Cousins will be a way to pivot in large-field GPPs.

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

J.Herbert: His DK price is nearly unplayable since it's based on him reaching near his ceiling game, but it's much friendlier on FD.
Thursday Update: With all the possible weather issues, Herbert has become a very interesting, very low-owned (At least on DK) large field tournament / Q option.
D.Carr: Before seeing that he's likely going to be one of the more popular options, I had Carr near the top of my GPP tier. If he's anywhere 8%+ owned I will take my chances coming in lower. That being said, this is a really good spot.
B.Mayfield: Down his WR1, he was still able to have one of his better games last week. He's staying in my player pool as a way to pivot off the Hunt chalk.
B.Roethslisberger: I actually think I may be over the POWN here, but I'm not going crazy either. PIT will likely find out it's a lot easier to throw on BAL then just running it up the middle. His weapons are quite dope.

QB Fades

These are QBs we're looking to mostly avoid, especially as solo plays. (Either because of high ownership and/or a poor outlook.)
D.Brees: "If no M.Thomas, I will be suppressing my Brees ownership severely", is what I said last week. Now, same plan, going against a decent CHI D in what is likely to be a slow paced affair.
M.Stafford: We haven't seen a true week changing ceiling and the matchup could slow down their pace this week.
P.Rivers
D.Lock

Ideal Stack Pairings

There's a lot of leverage to gain when including a second pass-catcher with our QB choice AND bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. Unlike the majority of sites, we don't advise to strictly game stack 4+ players in matchups with high implied totals. Instead, we look to target offenses where the targets are heavily concentrated.
P.Mahomes-> T.Kelce and T.Hill / D.Robinson
R.Wilson-> T.Lockett and/or D.Metcalf
J.Burrow-> T.Boyd and T.Higgins / A.Green
R.Tannehill-> A.Brown and/or J.Smith / C.Davis
A.Rodgers-> D.Adams and/or R.Tonyan / A.Jones
J.Allen-> S.Diggs or C.Beasley
K.Cousins-> A.Thielen or J.Jefferson
J.Garoppolo-> G.Kittle and/or Aiyuk
J.Herbert-> K.Allen and/or M.Williams / H.Henry
B.Mayfield-> R.Higgins and/or K.Hunt
T.Bridgewater-> R.Anderson and/or D.Moore
C.Newton-> J.Edelman or N.Harry
B.Roethlisberger-> D.Johnson and/or C.Claypool / J.Smith-Schuster
T.Bridgewater-> D.Moore or R.Anderson / M.Davis
M.Stafford-> K.Golladay or T.Hockenson
Tua -> D.Parker or M.Gesicki

RB Core

Primary Tier

D.Cook: It's the return of the GAWD. Cook is slated to return this week after the world finally realized that Mattison is not his equal, nor in the same tier. He's been fed the ball often and MIN knows he needs to be a big part of their plan if they want to keep up with Rodgers and Co. As a bonus, he's cheaper and likely to be lesser owned than some of the other Top RBs.
K.Hunt: His advanced metrics are actually showing several areas of decline but my god the current situation couldn't have even been dreamed of when the season began. Chubb and ODB are now gone, he's in position to see an endless amount of touches and is in a GREAT matchup. Oh, he's game-script proof regardless.
A.Kamara: He's likely the most talented player on every field he steps on and if the Saints ever decide to give him those 25+ touches, they may like what they see. I don't understand why they aren't giving him 30 touches let alone 25. This game also leaves Kamara's ceiling somewhat suppressed. While I won't be "Fading" Kamara, it's looking like a rare week I'll be coming in under / matching the field. (Scroll below to Updates to read NOS vs. CHI Game Environment Issues).
Update: I went through the numbers, he's currently averages about 20 opportunities per game (even without M.Thomas). Come on Saints, the hell. Unleash him.

Secondary Tier

D.Henry: The BIG DAWG is fun to own on those slates where he steps on all the defensive backs heads on his way to a 95 Yard TD score. How does somebody that big run that fast? He pulls away from CBs and Safeties that are attempting to chase him down. Anyways, we're looking at what will likely be my favorite game stack of the week. TEN vs. CIN is just so perfect for GPPs. I've said it over and over again, Pace and Volume are vital categories that I will always try to be overexposed to on a weekly basis. TEN and CIN feature the only game that BOTH teams are in the top 8 in Pace. Faster Tempo = More Plays. More Plays = More Volume. More Volume = Fantasy Gold. While this was supposed to be a D.Henry breakdown, I turned it into why I'm going to be all over this game. The CIN and TEN Pace is no fluke either. Henry has the most touches in the league while Burrow has the most drop backs in the entire NFL. Man, I'm excited.
A.Jones: His talent and projected workload belongs in the top tier, especially given its a plus matchup and he's pretty much game script proof. However, this is one of the more key areas I'm waiting to get a definitive feel for how the field will be playing it. If we see D.Adams chalk I'll go heavier on the RB side. If we see people flood to the GB Run side, I'll go even heavier on the passing attack. Regardless, I want all the GB vs. MIN I can get and will be making sure any popular combination will be attached to a contrarian piece I find elsewhere.
G.Bernard/J.Williams: Both will quickly make their way up the tiers if they get the lead role again. Both are in plus matchups, but I would like to see where POWN would be coming in at. Most likely, they will be decent pivots off their team's more popular options. Since they both have pass game roles, they can be stacked nicely with their QB as well.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Jacobs: He's been quiet as of late, but he's still one of the best volume situated backs in the league. One odd category that most people wouldn't even suspect is his solid number (24% heading into Week 7) of RBs who are targeted at the highest per-route rate. Believe it or not, theres only a handful of players with a higher number. On top of that, he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game. I'm really intrigued to see where POWN is going to come in at. Regardless, I'm aiming to be a decent amount higher.
J.Taylor: I know, I know. Grandpa Taylor and his 15 carries for 78 yards with hopefully a fall into the end zone. It's been rather brutal ever since his coming out party Week 2. Still, I have to mention the enticing matchup vs. DET's 28th ranked DVOA vs. RBs, the relatively high game total of 50+, and the large O-Line advantage he will have vs. DET's D-Line. So there you go, I have said what I have to say, now you know it. And now, we try to talk ourselves into one way or the other.
M.Gordon: So far this has been an odd tempting spot for me to go way over the field on. Besides the "revenge game" narrative, Lindsay is likely to miss this week, giving Gordon all the run he can handle. Because he's capable of catching the ball and running between the tackles, his reasonable price and the likelihood of being 5% or less owned makes him quite the bring back piece to any K.Allen lineup. While DEN vs. LAC isn't likely to go nuclear, it can very easily feature two players who can tilt some contests. Perfect case of POWN vs. What his upside/outlook suggests he should be owned.
CEH: Honestly would be straight up fading him if you told me he was going to be 18%+ POWN. I'm assuming he won't so therefore, he falls in a weird space this week. There's no reason why he cant see 21 touches and find the end zone multiple times here, and yet, he seems to find a way to disappoint. I also will be projecting him lower than what you may be accustomed to. That is because I'm 100% sure that they will be giving 1 TD to L.Bell.
M.Gaskin: In general, this MIA vs. LAR game finds itself in no man's land this week. Simply because of the lack of attention this game will be getting, leaves my contrarian obsessed mind to try to find the hidden treasures. LAR are weaker vs. the run than the pass, and with a rookie QB, I would have to assume MIA might try to keep the ball on the ground more. It's also nice to have a few bring back options in any game stack such as C.Kupp or R.Woods. Hell, even G.Everett and J.Reynolds can be other next to no ownership pieces.

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

I wanted to separate the RB group a bit more this week. While these players can be played on all sites, they are likely better suited to TD oriented scoring formats (FanDuel).
J.Conner: My ownership levels are low enough where he can be considered a "Fade" but he also makes enough sense as a contrarian TD dependent play.
J.McKinnon/J.Hasty: I would favor McKinnon because of his pass game usage in a game where they'll likely be trying to keep up vs. a defense that's a lot better vs. the run than the pass.
Starting SEA RB: While facing an elite Run D will usually be something I fade, whoever SEA plays this Sunday presents us a way to pivot in large fields or Qs with the off chance SEA decides to revert back to their 2013-2019 ways. A weak hedge on my part that will be a very small part of my FD plan.
D.Henderson / M.Brown: Annoying committee but the matchup is near as ideal as it can get.
J.Jackson/J.Kelley: Ideally LAC would like to pass it on DEN but sure, there could also be chances for red zone carries here.
D.Harris: Since there's a 50% chance NE just runs it 40 times here.
L.Murray: I wouldn't be opposed to going heavier on Kamara on DK while bumping up Murray's ownership on FD. A great hedge against the Saints burning us with random TD variance. Again.
L.Bell: Likely will be gift wrapped a TD against his former team.

RB Fades

D.Montgomery: Workload and backfield is all his and it doesn't seem to matter. His inefficient ways are no longer a habit, but a way of life.
BAL RBs: You don't find success by running vs. PIT.
J.White/R.Burkhead
D.Singletary
Any DET RB not named Swift

Standout RB Notes

Unlike the more volatile positions, it's generally fine to play the chalkier options at the Running Back position. Their guaranteed workload & touches are extremely difficult to replicate otherwise. That being said, remember to adjust based on the type of contest and field size.
Talking shop with Nick today, he brought up the "Don't play 2 RBs from the same game" rule. While that might be so for the majority of games, it's not a rule that applies for every single matchup. For example, this week I see two particular games that I wouldn't mind having both RBs in the same lineup.
J.Jacobs and K.Hunt
D.Cook and A.Jones/J.Williams
If a game includes at least 1 RB who has a decent role in the team's passing game, it opens up the possibility of 2 RBs going off no matter the game-script.
The Cook and GB RB pairing might be the more obvious but you still be surprised how rarely people play two backs in the same game. The one that I think will be very rare is Jacobs and Hunt. Mind you, before I even checked the horrific passing weather that will plague this matchup, I was all about going in on both backs, even in the same lineup. For the most part, just about every type of DFS player knows K.Hunt is well known for his pass catching abilities, but I think 95% of players would be shocked to see Jacobs' low-key pass role. Mentioned up top, but it's worth saying again: he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game.

WR Core

Primary Tier

D.Metcalf/T.Lockett: If I'm playing Wilson then obviously these two have to be included. Not the "best" matchup but on the chance this game ends up shooting out more than what people are expecting, the ceiling is as high as ANY.
K.Allen: Just a BEAST. Week in and week out, volume of the gods. I actually just became friends with the LAC WRs/Offensive Coordinator Coach so I got some insight into how they prepare for their weekly matchups. Regardless of opponent, Allen is producing at his all time best levels right now. Price doesn't seem to go up which is annoying and will make his POWN higher than it would otherwise. Lock of a Cash Play, and I will be looking to find some unique ways to feature him in my higher-dollar lineups.
D.Adams: Usually when you already own a ridiculous portion of your team's opportunity share it's hard to find another level, but that's what Adams just did when the Packers lost A.Jones. Even though Tonyan and MVS can have a few spike weeks here and there, there is no greater target density that has this kind of ceiling. Price is as high as its been all year leaving a lot of room for "disappointments". By disappointment I mean even a 8-85-0 (16.5 PPR Points) is going to be considered an off week. So while there is a decent possibility Adams "only" gets us a 16-18 point output, you better believe there is plenty of ceiling potential that we see him go nuclear yet again.

Secondary Tier

A.Brown: The combo of The greatest receiving talent in the week's best game environment has me all over Brown here. I'll have my hedge lineups that feature an unexpected C.Davis and/or Humphries spike week but no where near the amount of Brown exposure I'm planning.
J.Jefferson / A.Thielen: Yup, Jefferson has now reached Thielen Status and will be side by side. This game is my favorite one to build stacks from because of the numerous ways we can go about it. We can include GB Running with MIN Passing, we can go MIN Running with GB Passing, or we can simply bet on an all-out arial attack from both sides and have an onslaught type of lineup. (5 Players from the same game). I plan to feature an even amount of these two in all MIN vs. GB Game Stacks but I'll also be featuring them as secondary stacks and 1-off pieces without issue or hesitation.

Tier 3

T.Hill: Leading off the tier of "Really Great Talent" but questionable game environments goes Ty Freak. There's no reason why Mahomes wouldn't target the one of the most dynamic players in the game at least 7+ times. There's nobody in the Jets secondary who even remotely matches up well here. Yet, my fear of KC running away with it and their propensity to share the ball all around have me scared enough where I won't ever go all in on a certain KC pass catcher.
S.Diggs: If I am betting that NEP get their act together vs. this overrated Bills D, that likely means S.Diggs should be in position to see a lot of volume and opportunities. I wish he wasn't going to be covered by last year's best CB in Gillmore, but I'm still going to bet on Diggs Talent and workload. The good news is that S.Gilmore has "fallen off" from the #1 CB to merely just a top #10 ish CB this season. Side note: If NEP are somehow successful at slowing Diggs down, that just means that Beasley and J.Brown (G.Davis if Brown is out again) are likely in position to have a BOOM week.
K.Golladay: Last week was the highest I've ever been on Golladay believe it or not. He did his thing too, so all is well. Still, I dont understand what is keeping the Lions from feeding him true #1 Alpha targets? He's been playing in only about 75% of snaps all season which whatever I can get over if that means he's being peppered whenever he's on the field, but that's not totally the case. He hasn't seen anymore than 8 targets in a single game. That 8 target game was also his only 8 target game, meaning the others have been even less. So, this is a long-winded way of saying I want to see DET commit to their stud in the making before I go all in, especially on weeks where the matchup isn't as juicy.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Players in this grouping aren't necessarily "worse" plays than Tier 3. The majority of the time you'll see players in this tier that I have projected to outscore some of the names above them. This tier should be viewed more as the "Leverage Group" because of their ownership being lower than it should.
NOTE: I almost didn't have to touch this section. Take a look back at last week's GPP Dart Group for WRs, an absurd % surpassed their projections. Just a reminder of how this tier tends to be the GPP tilting plays, one way or another.
T.Boyd: Pretty easily the best game stack piece to bring back in any TEN lineup. Oh, and the best WR to pair with Burrow on the CIN side. The only downside is his price increase, especially on DK. His teammates Higgins and Green offer better savings but it comes with a lower floor as well.
C.Kupp/R.Woods/J.Reynolds: I know, what the hell? All 3 are going to be severely low-owned compared to what they should. I mentioned above how LAR vs. MIA will be all but forgotten this slate, so here's me reminding you about their upside pieces. I wanted to mention Reynolds alongside these two studs because he's been putting up rather impressive numbers for week now at near min price and 0% ownership. All 3 of these can make awesome 1-off pieces as well, as there are plenty of outcomes where MIA lays an egg but LAR can still provide at least a couple of high scoring players.
B.Aiyuk: By default, the #1 WR in a game vs. SEA secondary. Kittle will still be the #1 Pass option, but Aiyuk is in a clear BOOM spot.
R.Higgins/J.Landry: While Landry will be the favorite to become CLE's go to WR post-Odell injury, it's Baker to R.Higgins who's put up some of the most unexpected QB-WR efficient numbers I've ever come across. Evan Silva mentioned the insane 74% completion rate on 65 targets for 705 yards and 7 TDs Higgins has put up when targeted by Mayfield. That's a 10.8 Yards per Target clip. Jesus.
M.Brown: BAL has paths to make this game a shootout rather than a slug fest. While the Eagles aren't exactly in either of the Ravens or Steelers Tier, they managed to turn both of their contests into high scoring, slate shifting explosions. While the Philly offense is in pieces, their D is actually somewhat comparable to these two teams. Now, again, overall they are probably two tiers below at their best, but the scheme and game flow is a great comp. Even if we have only a 33% shot to see a shootout here, I know who the likely suspects will be. With PIT having a lot better middle and inside coverage, their vulnerable on the outside. Enter, Mr. Brown.
T.Higgins: The 2nd most talented CIN WR. His upside remains that of GPP worthy and now we're even starting to see a stable floor that comes along with it. Great matchup that will likely see at least 2 CIN WRs perform well.. I like his chances.
D.Johnson: This has been one of the most annoying players to get right ever since he blessed us with a fantastic first week. Since then, we've been trying to ride him and his newly found rock solid floor to cash glory only to somehow lose him in 3 straight weeks to injury. His price last week was another key oversight that I dropped the ball on. I fell victim to having been burned too many times in a row to make him a major target last week.
C.Davis: Quietly, this former 1st Rd. Pick is becoming a decent player. Coming off of a 6 Receptions for 35 Yards and a TD on a team-high 10 targets, Tannehill seems to clearly trust him. Avg. 7.3 Targets through his 4 games.
C.Claypool: You just won't see me ever be lower on him than the field. Sadly, the days of near no ownership are likely past us.
D.Robinson (KC): Last week I wrote "My week might hinge a bit too much on whether or not Robinson continues seeing a 95% snap share. Oh well. Bombs away" Sigh. Of course, it took the most random variance of defensive TDs and Punt Return TDs to make Mahomes have his worst fantasy production of the year. Robinson is still in position to see a whole lot of snaps as the team's starting WR. At his price, it doesn't take much. Honestly, one Mahomes throw of 20 yards will get us there.
H.Ruggs: We saw his upside already. The talent is tremendous. And now so to is the matchup. (Wind might affect this call. His thrives on down field splash plays)

The In-Betweeners

Pieces that won't be priorities but offer plenty of upside in any Team / Game Stacks they're a part of.
A.Green: While I wouldn't like to rely on AJ reverting back to his prime week in and week out, we'll likely see at least a couple of spike weeks for the former stud.
J.Smith-Schuster: This guy man. I touted him all Week 6 and he burns me. I mention him in passing Week 7 and he reverts back to the old Juju.
T.Patrick: WR1 in an underrated game stack.
P.Williams: With Parker Out or even playing gimpy covered by J.Ramsey, P.Williams makes for an ideal 1% owned YOLO play in MIA/LAR Stacks.
MVS: Hasn't shown up lately but his price is really low for the WR2 in a Rodgers led offense.
N.Agohlor: Being an Eagles fan I just can't trust it, but he can be a stacking option if you like.
M.Jones: While his snap count and target share is in a sort of free fall, he's still capable of providing GPP Winning weeks in the right spots and outlier games.
D.Byrd: Keeps being priced down as if he's not seeing 90+% of snaps and 5+ targets on the regular. Might be only WR left standing.
A.Humphries: Not exciting, but exceeds value more than you would think.
K.Bourne: Floor is probably 0 but again, SEA secondary and he will be in position to see the 2nd most snaps of SF's WRs.

Standout WR Notes

Nothing much left to be said other than yet another reminder to CORRELATE your lineups. Try getting exposures to some Game Stacks that have paths to featuring several upside winning players.

TE Core

Primary Tier

D.Waller: He can lead the position this week without much of an issue. His ROO includes that of making someone a Millionaire. Great piece of a great game stack. Hell, even as a 1-Off he's nice.
G.Kittle: Faded him last week, but that stops here. Not only was he already the focal point of an offense, not only is he a 100% snap player, but now he gets to face the worst graded secondary in the NFL in a matchup that includes a ROO anywhere from a disappointing meh performance to Game of the Year. I'm betting it goes closer to the BOOM side. (The offense lost a lot of their target share due to injury, so his ridiculous usage is even safer now).
T.Kelce: Literally rinse and repeat from last week. I expect him to be decently owned and that's ok. He's popular for a reason. Presents the safest floor + ceiling combo of the position every week.

Secondary Tier

J.Smith: Here we go again, going back to the players who sucked the previous week. Smith seems to be practicing in full so we can drop all this Firkster crap.
M.Gesicki: What better way to protect the rookie QB than to pepper your talented TE who happens to be in a plus matchup vs. LAR. They are a good defense overall, but TE's are their Achilles.
M.Andrews: Might need to revisit this once the weekend arrives and POWN has changed, but the popular thinking would be that Andrews gets single digit OWN% after a dud game AND a tough matchup that will have the majority of our opponents skipping him over. This may be the rare chance to get a Top 3 QB + a Top 3 TE at bottom-level OWN%. Their ceiling easily makes it worth it.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

CLE TEs: Both Bryant and NJoku still offer decent value and are part of an offense that just lost it's number 1 target share holder. OBJ's injury has now opened up almost 40% of End Zone targets for CLE.
H.Henry: Chalky bust of last week means you know what... Play him more than the field. Don't get crazy either. If POWN is 4%, lets leverage the overreaction to a 8% clip.
T.Burton: I'm not going to deceive you guys, I have a bit of a crush on Burton ever since he was an Eagle. Love his game and all the ways he can produce. We don't know what the TE snap share will settle between Burton, Doyle, and even MAC. That being said, I'm willing to bet that Indy saw what they have in Burton and with his still really cheap price, I'm going to be plugging in Burton more than the normal DFSer.
R.Tonyan: Likely a better play on FD for his TD role, but the price has dropped enough on DK where he makes for a nice low-owned pivot in any GB Stacks.
I.Smith Jr.: Role has been growing. Likely no high ceiling in his ROO but plenty of results that see him eclipse his projected total.
E.Ebron: Including him even though the majority of his ROO includes outputs of a 4th option (as he is now) but he's also got outcomes that see him get a 2 TD game at any given week. FD preferred.
D.Sample: Only in CIN Stacks as a pivot off their WRs.

TE Fades

T.Hockenson: He's been fine. I'm still waiting for more ceiling games to come before I ever insert him into any high dollar lineups. His game total is pushing 50+ at least, but my interest is "meh".
N.Fant: I was initially excited to playing Fant this week until I ran into some troubling data. Not only have the LAC D strangled TE production as a whole, they've done so while facing some of the teams who target their TEs at the highest levels. He can always get lucky and come away with a TD, but math tells me to take some shots elsewhere when it comes to DEN offense.
J.Graham: TD or bust every week and somehow the price has risen.
G.Olsen: Honestly it's ok as part of SEA Stacks to differentiate and save money but SF vs. TE is rather tough.

TE Standout Notes

TE is a unique situation to approach depending on the site you're playing on. On FanDuel, TEs are usually priced closer together, leaving it unnecessary to play a lesser talent compared to a similarly priced stud. Touchdowns are a lot more important on FD as well. While on DK (Full PPR), we can pay down to a value TE who can get us there on volume alone.

DST Core

Highest Raw Rating: KCC, BUF, NOS, LAR
Other Pivot Options: CHI, LAC, NEP, IND, TEN, BAL

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

The Boogie Factor combines numerous sets of data that we prioritize for player's outlooks. We're confident with our projections heading into Week 1, but our edge is really going to start showing come a month into the season. Reason being, we're waiting to collect a month's sample size from the 2020 season to better reflect certain jumps / declines players have taken.
An example of all that goes into the Boogie Factor besides the obvious categories such as projected pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns (just for QBs) is the following:
- Expected Hurries
- Projected Blitzes
- Projected Pressure
- Moneyline Spread
- Moneyline Movement
- Expected Passing Air Conversion Ratio
Recent data is even more important for skill positions such as WR and RB. A position as volatile as WR, being able to collect Air Yards Data helps nail down other advanced metrics that better predict WR efficiency and outputs.
- Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR )
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
If all that is a bit overwhelming to you, not to worry. That's why we're here and that's what the BF will help sort out.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

Coming off my worst week of my DFS career, I'm going all in as far as studying every possible angle of every game. While some will be popular and for good reason, I'll be focusing more on the "secondary" options that will be more likely to be looked over.
An example, Bills vs. Pats. The low total and the recent skids of both offenses are going to cause some of the lowest ownership of the entire slate. While it's concerning that our boy J.Allen and his Bills have gone from averaging 30+ points the first month of the season to just 17 points per game since, we know the upside remains in tact. More troubling is Cam and the Pats. With literally 0 Top 24 WR & TE Week Performances since their matchup with Seattle (Week 2), we obviously shouldn't be going all in here. That being said, there is reason for hope that the Bills Top 10 Pace in 1-Score situations can force the Pats to wake up and push their tempo. As mentioned with Cam, I'm hoping we see an increase in his rushing attempts as oppose to NE simply handing it off to their rotation of backs.
Update: Sigh. Weather concerns..
Then we have those "Could Be Shootouts but Can Also Disappoint) matchups of SEA vs. SF, CLE vs. LVR, and even LAC vs. DEN.
I'm actually pretty high on SEA vs. SF generating a lot of fantasy scoring. Lets take a look at the ridiculous fantasy friendly events that are SEA games. First of all, they have produced the 2nd most plays per game (140.5). They also have the PERFECT ingredients we look for when it comes to predicting shootouts with their pass first, fast pace offense and their horrendous pass funnel defense. The cherry on top is their Run D being a Top 10 unit which all but guarantees that opponents will be looking to find ways through the air. While SF may not rank among the top in pace, or average anywhere near the amount of plays per game (124), they tend to speed things up when facing a capable opponent. SEA definitely falls under that category.
CLE vs. LVR falls closer to a 60-40% chance of surpassing expectations. My main concern is that these offenses both fall in the bottom half of the league in pace. They both are also run-first offenses. That being said, regardless of these facts, LVR games and CLE games have both managed to combine an average of 60+ points through 7 weeks. That isn't exactly a small sample. Still, there is a possibility their slower paces cause their efficient scoring to drop more than we've seen so far. At the very least, we know K.Hunt and J.Jacobs are in prime spots to succeed being in teams that handoff at Top 5 rates in 1-Score Situations.
LAC vs. DEN is actually more of a "You wouldn't think so but you be surprised". At first glance, I figured DEN offense to rank among the bottom 5 in all things scoring and pace. Surprisingly, DEN games actually rank among the top half and LAC games have seen a Top 5 rank in total plays ran. I'm assuming this matchup won't be too popular as far as game stacking is concerned, leaving us some room to gain leverage with the hidden upside we can see.
To recap: I love TEN vs. CIN, they will be my #1 targeted game in all type of contests.
Other games like DET vs. IND and NO vs. CHI offer us very little hope as far as ceiling and pace are concerned. DET's bottom 5 grade vs. the run will likely have IND committing to their usual run first ways. DET began the year with some decent pace (Top 10 throughout the first month) but have plummeted to the 20s since. As far as NO goes, they are literally dead LAST when it comes to pace whenever the game is within a score. On top of CHI's horrific 4.8 yards per play (30th), both team's defenses have been far more successful than the offenses they will be facing. CHI D ranks top 5 in Pass Rush and Pass Coverage while NO D allows the 3rd fewest "Splash Plays"(20+ yard plays). The CHI offense as it is, ranks Bottom 6 in Splash Plays themselves.
If you like this content, visit us at dailyboogie.com for additional pieces free of charge all weekend and let us know what you think!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

It’s Christmas, a good time to reflect on our blessings. One of those blessings -- for football fans and bettors alike -- is a rare four consecutive days of NFL action, starting with a Christmas Day matinee. Kicking off this Christmas weekend of pigskin bliss, the Saints (10-4) host the Vikings (6-8) at the Superdome. The Saints are listed as -7 favorites (-310 ML), and the oveunder is set at 51 total points. New Orleans felt blessed last weekwhen veteran leader and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees returned from a four-week absence after suffering 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees struggled early against the Chiefsbut nearly mounted a second-half comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions, ultimately falling short 32-29. Meanwhile, the Vikings are likely just thankful their season is almost mercifully overand that they have Offensive Player of the Year candidate Dalvin Cook on their side. WEEK 16 PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em/Surivor PoolsWe at BetQL always want to help you achieve betting success, which is why we’ve offered a comprehensive Thursday Night Football betting preview and predictions here at Sporting News every week of the season. We can tell you right now that for this Friday Afternoon Football game, we are all-in on the OVER of 51 points, with our BetQL Best Bet Model listing it as a full five-star bet. Keep reading to reveal our detailed preview for this Christmas contest, as well as our full predictions against the spread and on the moneyline.Vikings OutlookThe Vikings have experienced a couple different down stretches this season, losing five of their first six games and now three of their past five. They have also experienced some highs, like beating the Packers, Bears, and Texans, but they have also hit some pretty murky points.Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, it’s important to look at the bright side of things. Justin Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the 2020 Draft classand will almost assuredly receive some votes for Rookie of the Year. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen has experienced a bounce-back seasonand seems to have made the end zone his second home. Perhaps most noteworthy, running back Dalvin Cook has not only been healthy the majority of this season, he’s also dominated. Cook should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year honors.That said, the Vikings have exhibited far more weaknesses than strengths during their 2020 campaign. They have struggled to execute defensively in big games, allowing an average of 29.5 points to the six teams they have played that are currently in playoff positions. Losing defensive end Danielle Hunter, linebacker Anthony Barr, and cornerback Mike Hughes to season-ending injuries was a brutal triple-punch to the gut. Now LB Erik Kendricks, arguably the leader of this defensive unit, has missed three consecutive games with a calf injury, and cornerback Cameron Dantzler is "questionable" with a nagging foot ailment.The other major issue Mike Zimmer’s squad has faced has been its ability to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran has been sacked 34 timeson an astounding 7.2 percent of his pass attempts. Constant pressure has clearly affected his decision-making, as he has regularly forced passes and consequently ranks second in interceptions with 13. He’s also fumbled away the football five times on the season.If Cousins had better protection, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he would have put up (and how many wins Minnesota would have). He has posted 3,569 passing yards and 29 TDs, but he has been haunted by sacks and QB hits all year. In Minnesota’s eight losses, he has been sacked a total of 22 times and thrown 11 picks. Tampa got to him six times two weeks ago, and Chicago registered three sacks and a pick last week. This dude is beat up, and he now faces a Saints team that ranks sixth in the NFL with 40 sacksand just took reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes down four times last week.CHRISTMAS DFS: DK Showdown lineup | FD Single-game lineupSaints OutlookLike Minnesota, the Saints need a win to break their two-game losing streak, but unlike Minnesota, who barely have any chance of making the playoffs, New Orleans clinched a postseason berth weeks ago. The Saints can cement their NFC South title this weekend with a win against the Vikingsor with a Buccaneers loss to the Lions.With Drew Brees one more week into healing his 11 rib fractures and punctured lung (which he sustained in Week 10 against San Francisco), it’s a good bet that New Orleans will punch its own ticket to the division championship and rest easy on the long holiday weekend. Who Dat Nation would then have their sights on a bye in the first week of the playoffs.As good as their record suggests they are, the Saints have been largely carried by their dynamic defense in the second half of this season. Backup QB/TE/RB extraordinaire Taysom Hill led New Orleans to three wins after the Brees injury, but the pass game basically took a backseat on the priority list. In Week 14, Hill got outdueled at his own RPO game by mobile rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. In Week 15, Brees and his wide receiver corps struggled to find connections in the first half.Coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should have their team more prepared to go against the injury-ravaged Vikings. Minnesota hovers around the bottom-third in the NFL in points allowed, total yards surrendered, rushing yards allowed, and all passing categories.Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit should continue its torrid attack of the football, and its front seven should eat well this Christmas. The Saints rank sixth in the league in sacks with 40and coincidentally also rank sixth in the league in points allowed. They give up the third-fewest total yards and have the fifth-most takeaways. No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs.Veteran defensive end Trey Hendrickson has emerged as a star this season, tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Cameron Jordan, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, has 6.5 sacks of his own. The tandem has combined for 22 tackles for loss and 39 QB hits. They lead the line, while Demario Davis (106 tackles/65 solo/4 sacks/10 TFL/10 QB hits) runs the linebackers. The addition of MalcolmJenkins and re-signing ofJanoris Jenkins to the secondary has boded well for everybody, lessening the load for Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.The Saints are an elite team designed for a Super Bowl run, so realistically the Vikings are just a blip on their radar. Expect Payton and his coaching staff to treat this as a playoff gameand have a jolly Christmas filled with a plethora of points.WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerPrediction The Vikings have been surprisingly good at third-down and red-zone defense this season, but they appear too banged up to hold a candle to this Saints offense in a key game in New Orleans. I think this one might be over by halftime, and I’m all in on the Saints’ moneyline (-310) and the spread (-7).The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, putting two stars on the spread and four stars on the moneyline. The Model also loves the OVER in this one, projecting the total to be closer to 54 points than the listed number of 51. As far as first-half bets go, the Model puts two stars on the Saints -4 at halftime and another two stars on the OVER at the break (26). It’s also all over the first-half moneyline, putting a four-star confidence rating on New Orleans -245. I’ll take the Saints to clinch their division on Christmas, winning big 33-26.You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

It’s Christmas, a good time to reflect on our blessings. One of those blessings -- for football fans and bettors alike -- is a rare four consecutive days of NFL action, starting with a Christmas Day matinee. Kicking off this Christmas weekend of pigskin bliss, the Saints (10-4) host the Vikings (6-8) at the Superdome. The Saints are listed as -7 favorites (-310 ML), and the oveunder is set at 51 total points. New Orleans felt blessed last weekwhen veteran leader and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees returned from a four-week absence after suffering 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees struggled early against the Chiefsbut nearly mounted a second-half comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions, ultimately falling short 32-29. Meanwhile, the Vikings are likely just thankful their season is almost mercifully overand that they have Offensive Player of the Year candidate Dalvin Cook on their side. WEEK 16 PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em/Surivor PoolsWe at BetQL always want to help you achieve betting success, which is why we’ve offered a comprehensive Thursday Night Football betting preview and predictions here at Sporting News every week of the season. We can tell you right now that for this Friday Afternoon Football game, we are all-in on the OVER of 51 points, with our BetQL Best Bet Model listing it as a full five-star bet. Keep reading to reveal our detailed preview for this Christmas contest, as well as our full predictions against the spread and on the moneyline.Vikings OutlookThe Vikings have experienced a couple different down stretches this season, losing five of their first six games and now three of their past five. They have also experienced some highs, like beating the Packers, Bears, and Texans, but they have also hit some pretty murky points.Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, it’s important to look at the bright side of things. Justin Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the 2020 Draft classand will almost assuredly receive some votes for Rookie of the Year. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen has experienced a bounce-back seasonand seems to have made the end zone his second home. Perhaps most noteworthy, running back Dalvin Cook has not only been healthy the majority of this season, he’s also dominated. Cook should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year honors.That said, the Vikings have exhibited far more weaknesses than strengths during their 2020 campaign. They have struggled to execute defensively in big games, allowing an average of 29.5 points to the six teams they have played that are currently in playoff positions. Losing defensive end Danielle Hunter, linebacker Anthony Barr, and cornerback Mike Hughes to season-ending injuries was a brutal triple-punch to the gut. Now LB Erik Kendricks, arguably the leader of this defensive unit, has missed three consecutive games with a calf injury, and cornerback Cameron Dantzler is "questionable" with a nagging foot ailment.The other major issue Mike Zimmer’s squad has faced has been its ability to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran has been sacked 34 timeson an astounding 7.2 percent of his pass attempts. Constant pressure has clearly affected his decision-making, as he has regularly forced passes and consequently ranks second in interceptions with 13. He’s also fumbled away the football five times on the season.If Cousins had better protection, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he would have put up (and how many wins Minnesota would have). He has posted 3,569 passing yards and 29 TDs, but he has been haunted by sacks and QB hits all year. In Minnesota’s eight losses, he has been sacked a total of 22 times and thrown 11 picks. Tampa got to him six times two weeks ago, and Chicago registered three sacks and a pick last week. This dude is beat up, and he now faces a Saints team that ranks sixth in the NFL with 40 sacksand just took reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes down four times last week.CHRISTMAS DFS: DK Showdown lineup | FD Single-game lineupSaints OutlookLike Minnesota, the Saints need a win to break their two-game losing streak, but unlike Minnesota, who barely have any chance of making the playoffs, New Orleans clinched a postseason berth weeks ago. The Saints can cement their NFC South title this weekend with a win against the Vikingsor with a Buccaneers loss to the Lions.With Drew Brees one more week into healing his 11 rib fractures and punctured lung (which he sustained in Week 10 against San Francisco), it’s a good bet that New Orleans will punch its own ticket to the division championship and rest easy on the long holiday weekend. Who Dat Nation would then have their sights on a bye in the first week of the playoffs.As good as their record suggests they are, the Saints have been largely carried by their dynamic defense in the second half of this season. Backup QB/TE/RB extraordinaire Taysom Hill led New Orleans to three wins after the Brees injury, but the pass game basically took a backseat on the priority list. In Week 14, Hill got outdueled at his own RPO game by mobile rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. In Week 15, Brees and his wide receiver corps struggled to find connections in the first half.Coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should have their team more prepared to go against the injury-ravaged Vikings. Minnesota hovers around the bottom-third in the NFL in points allowed, total yards surrendered, rushing yards allowed, and all passing categories.Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit should continue its torrid attack of the football, and its front seven should eat well this Christmas. The Saints rank sixth in the league in sacks with 40and coincidentally also rank sixth in the league in points allowed. They give up the third-fewest total yards and have the fifth-most takeaways. No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs.Veteran defensive end Trey Hendrickson has emerged as a star this season, tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Cameron Jordan, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, has 6.5 sacks of his own. The tandem has combined for 22 tackles for loss and 39 QB hits. They lead the line, while Demario Davis (106 tackles/65 solo/4 sacks/10 TFL/10 QB hits) runs the linebackers. The addition of MalcolmJenkins and re-signing ofJanoris Jenkins to the secondary has boded well for everybody, lessening the load for Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.The Saints are an elite team designed for a Super Bowl run, so realistically the Vikings are just a blip on their radar. Expect Payton and his coaching staff to treat this as a playoff gameand have a jolly Christmas filled with a plethora of points.WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerPrediction The Vikings have been surprisingly good at third-down and red-zone defense this season, but they appear too banged up to hold a candle to this Saints offense in a key game in New Orleans. I think this one might be over by halftime, and I’m all in on the Saints’ moneyline (-310) and the spread (-7).The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, putting two stars on the spread and four stars on the moneyline. The Model also loves the OVER in this one, projecting the total to be closer to 54 points than the listed number of 51. As far as first-half bets go, the Model puts two stars on the Saints -4 at halftime and another two stars on the OVER at the break (26). It’s also all over the first-half moneyline, putting a four-star confidence rating on New Orleans -245. I’ll take the Saints to clinch their division on Christmas, winning big 33-26.You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

Hi DrMoneyline, you're not shadowbanned, but 42 of your most recent 43 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

gdaz0fj in sportsbook on 23 Nov 20 (1pts):

Record 40-23 across NFL and NCAAF Hell of a weekend!! 5-1 and almost went 6-0 if it weren’t for the choke job by the cheeseheads. Indiana Hoosiers +18 (+120) ✅
Vandy/Florida under 69 (nice)...

gda8bxz in sportsbook on 23 Nov 20 (1pts):

Time to fucking drink

gda050n in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Oh my god fuck the packers. How do you blow 14 point lead in a quarter

gd9zcau in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Packers are losing this game without a doubt

gd9i8wn in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Definitely put ten cents on it

gd9fvxz in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Record 40-22 5 straight! Indiana Hoosiers +18 (+120) ✅
Vandy/Florida under 69 (nice) ✅
Liberty +4.5 ✅
Washington Football -1.5 ✅
Browns -2.5 ✅
Next pick: Packers +1.5
Aaron Rodgers. No...

gd96ndi in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Joe burrow just lost his knee

gd967ed in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Washington offense coordinator is an absolute clown

gd8lae7 in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Agreed

gd8kvq8 in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Anyone on Cincy has not seen alex smith under center for the WFT. He looked elite last week during the second half. Expect that to carry over today. Cincinatti D straight up sucks

gd893wt in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Same

gd88oto in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

? That is horrible odds

gd83mma in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (0pts):

Record 38–22 3-0 day yesterday! Indiana Hoosiers +18 (+120) ✅
Vandy/Florida under 69 (nice) ✅
Liberty +4.5 ✅
Today’s pick: Cleveland -2.5
It’s going to absolutely pouring for this game....

gd5l9df in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Liberty qb getting completely exposed

gd5iljo in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Watch ESPN unless you’re in NC. Then it’s on fox sports go

gd592ra in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Thank fuck!

gd58b1i in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Look at who they played.. but I still think they pull this out. Qb will settle down second half. Let’s get some points before half time

gd525gj in sportsbook on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):

Yawn. This liberty game

gd4a72h in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

My god what were they thinking

gd42sb9 in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

UCLA!!!!!!

gd40awm in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

All you cincy bettors, Throw your money on UCLA +23 live bet.. It’s a lock.

gd3y32w in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

I have UCLA +17 too but that fumble td hurts deep

gd3qzij in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

Hoos your mama hoos your daddy HOOSIER HOOSIER!!!!

gd3l4do in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

Oh my god Indiana I’m so sorry for shitting on you for two straight hours
Edit: nvm

gd37s8w in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

Indiana thought they had a shot lol

gd0s448 in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (0pts):

Record 35-22
Today’s pick: Indiana Hoosiers +18.0 (+120)
Indiana has been BALLING out this year. They may have played some teams that have ended up not great, but nonetheless they have looked...

gd02i46 in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

Louisville is gonna cover -19 in the first half

gczxb9i in sportsbook on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):

Alright Cuse might not score

gczu4lq in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

Love the username my guy. Unc grad here. Go heels!

gczmwig in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

35-21
Cuse +19.5. Both teams suck but Louisville is not a 3 TD better team. I’ve lost 5 in a row though so fade my ass

gcwoueb in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

See you tomorrow

gcwoduo in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

What? This Seattle defense is playing significantly better than it has in any game this season

gcwhw4o in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

He’s down where he gives himself up which was a yard before the first down, not where his slide ends

gcw87la in sportsbook on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):

Record 35-20
Cards +3 easy pick. Kyler is playing incredible football and the Seahawks defense is French toast. Seahawks just changed the name of their stadium so no chance they win
Follow my...

gcooh6j in sportsbook on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):

Akron D line needs to walk home. Might help them get in a little better shape

gcolson in sportsbook on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):

Number 67 on Akron defense is the slowest most unathletic football player I’ve ever seen

gcoj3p2 in sportsbook on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):

They’re up 25..

gcoh0hk in sportsbook on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):

Didn’t bet MAC tonight and it feels great. This is an absolute clown league

gco4dtt in sportsbook on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):

First half BG +19 easy ass money

gcknlxs in sportsbook on 17 Nov 20 (1pts):

That cb been getting toasted all night. He’s ass

gckg6b7 in sportsbook on 17 Nov 20 (1pts):

Bears are donezo. Not enough offense to keep up

gck4xao in sportsbook on 17 Nov 20 (1pts):

35-19 this season
On a cold streak so prob fade me but I love Bears +3. Prime time Kirk sucks ass and nick foles usually shows up for prime time. Not taking moneyline cuz Nagy always finds ways...

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I don't know if this will qualify as 'excessive self-promotion', but we're batting above average on our weekly NFL picks (we make a selection for every game both moneyline and ATS) and would be interested to get feedback on format and our picks.
If you do enjoy it, go ahead and subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts to catch our picks each week, but with one member outperforming the CBS experts and up 35% on his bets of the week, it's a fairly decent starting point for most NFL bets each week.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0l02AM89HZiuAmrZ4RlPfS?si=s9Q0RPmQQ6qc8Bf5I1RgBg

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.
ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.
DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.
ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!
BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!

STACKS TO CONSIDER:
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN) – Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN) – Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.
ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.
CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.
HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.
MY BETS:
Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units
San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units
Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.
Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):
Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

Alternative title: Green Bay sucks and I can prove it mathematically
1. Overview:
This is a very high effort post. I built an open-sourced Python model for play-by-play simulating NFL games. Each aspect of the game is simulated: Was there a punt? Did they pass the ball or run it? How many yards did the play move? So on and so on. The modeling is done through a series of modified linear and logistic regressions (i.e., correlations but with multiple variables), and I believe my simulations are better than the available game simulators I found online. I also detail a pretty interesting modification I implemented, which allowed me to more closely mirror the yard distances associated with real-life NFL plays.
I was able to simulate specific matchups and compare the outcomes of my simulated games to Vegas predictions. My simulated spreadlines were, for the most part, not statistically significantly better than what Vegas offered, but I was certainly in the ballpark of what they produced, and my model may be better at creating opening spreads. Along with this, I detail results showing an average simulated season, which is meant to be analogous to a Pythagorean Expectation estimate and may have implications for which teams should expect to do better in the coming year(s). Lastly, I make a Super Bowl prediction.

If you aren’t interested in details (or buildup!), you can skip right to sections 3.2 and 3.3 where I describe the simulated seasons, and I make a Super Bowl prediction.

2. Some more background motivation:
The Pythagorean expectation formula attempts to calculate an expected number of wins over the course of a season, given some season-long “points for” and “points against.” Dominating wins with large differentials yield higher numbers of expected wins, and this wins estimate is ultimately found to be predictive of super bowl winners. This got me wondering whether similar predictions could be made by considering play-by-play information. That is, sometimes a team repeatedly makes big plays but in unlucky situations preventing points from being scored or a bad team may luck out and get their big plays in such a way that allows them to score massive points. For instance, a team may get a large 40-yd play right before the end of the half, but don’t have time to set up a great FG attempt. How would we calculate this in expected wins? Well, I tried to do this by using NFL play-by-play data to simulate games. I hoped that my process would be better than the not-so-good simulators I found online. I detail the specific regressions I used at the end of this post, as it may not be of much interest to many people.
3. Data Analytic Strategy:
Using this model, I originally had bold ambitions: if a team started going for it on 4th down 5% more often, would that help them win? However, time limitations and poor foresight related to getting this posted before the Super Bowl prevented me from doing tests along these lines (but such tests may be in my future or the futures of others who take a look at the code). However, I had time to run some basic tests, to understand whether this play-by-play simulation approach is valid, then I tried extracting some insight from it.
First, I simulated spread lines for every game of the 2018 and 2019 season, excluding week 17 as starters are often sat during this time. A simulated spread line was done by simulating each match up many times (see supplemental materials to find what "many times" means). I then calculated the median spread as my final simulated spreadline. I first report how close my spreadlines are to the vegas opening and closing lines (retrieved from here). I then compared how often my spreads were better than what Vegas offered. My spreads were “better” than the Vegas lines if my final simulated spreadline is closer to the final true spread associated with the real-life game (if the differences were equal, that counted as a half better, half worse). For each week’s matchup, I also calculated a win-loss proportion (i.e., a moneyline). These were similarly compared to Vegas positions (to represent the Vegas moneyline I just took the midpoint of the rake/vig area). Comparing the logloss/cross entropy would have been a more valid procedure, but I did not do that. I had similar performance for both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and so I do not report results specific to each. I did not factor in home team advantage here, but my results don’t seem to change very much if I just add 2 points to the home team’s spread.
I performed two branches of validation tests. The first used only the weeks prior to the target matchup as “training data.” For this validation test, I was hence only able to perform simulations on weeks 13 to 16, inclusive, as otherwise the training data becomes too limited and I get close to convergence errors on my regressions.
For the second branch of results, I used all the data other than the matchup I was simulating (e.g., to understand a week 8 matchup, I would train on weeks 1 to 7 and also 9 to 16). This is information not available to the Vegas oddsmakers, but in principle, should give me better results as it allows me to get a more accurate view of a team.
I mention the sample size (n) for many of these tests (e.g., the number of matchups that I simulated). I did not repeat this number, but you should interpret it as being the sample size for all the subsequent tests until I mention an updated sample size.
I did a similar procedure of testing whether my over-under simulated lines are better than Vegas, but I generally found myself to be worse, only beating Vegas in about 40% of games, and so I do not report these underwhelming results.
3. Results:
3.1 Predicting spreads and win-loss odds: For the first validation test, my results were encouraging but ultimately insignificant across the board. This validation test used only the information available to Vegas at the time of the matchup (i.e., training on weeks prior to the targeted one). My final spreads were pretty close to the closing Vegas spread lines being on average 2.5 points away from the closing line and 3.25 away from the opening line. My spreads were sometimes slightly higher and sometimes slightly lower than the lines, so not systematically different in either specific direction. My spreads were better than the Vegas opening spread for 53.8% of matchups (95% ci: [42.7, 63.9], n = 118). However, my spreads seemed to be a bit insignificantly worse than the closing spreads (45.3% [34.5, 55.6]). I was worse than Vegas in predicting win-loss odds - i.e., moneylines - for each team (45.8%, [35.3, 56.5]). Overall, these results are a little worse than I expected, but it is encouraging that I could create better spreads than the opening lines.
For the 2nd step of my validation procedure, I performed similar simulations and comparisons to Vegas but now while using data from before or after the week in focus. This should, in theory, allow me to get a richer view on the team in question using information from the “future” (and results would not “overfit” because I am not using data from the week which was actually played, only data from the future and past). I indeed find that my spreads were significantly better than the Vegas opening lines in 55.5% of instances ([50.1, 60.6], n = 464) but not better than the closing lines (48.8% [43.4, 54.0]). I was just about as good at Vegas in predicting win-loss odds (49.4% [44.1, 54.7]). As one would expect, if I focus on the early weeks (first 10) where I have relatively more additional information, I do even better against Vegas for the opening spreads (58.3% [51.4, 64.6], n = 296) and closing spreads (51.4% [44.7, 58.0]). My win-loss odds predictions also outperform Vegas here (52.7% [45.7, 59.0]). Identifying this significant difference using some future data is again fairly encouraging.
3.2 Predicting an expected number of wins for the season: I then simulated the expected number of wins a given team for the 2019 season. This involved me using that win-loss odds for each game a team played and then summing it for each team across the whole season (I used the simulations trained on all weeks but the one for the matchup in focus). The expected wins were meant to be analogous to using a Pythagorean Expectation to see whether a team is "better" or "worse" than their record suggests. My results are shown in Table 1. On average, I was off by 1.38 wins per team (RMSE = 18.5).
I found somethings that are potentially interesting. The 49ers and Chiefs are the second (12.9 wins) and third-best teams (12.5 wins) respectively, and these two teams ended up in the Super Bowl. Other interesting teams: Patriots (Ranked 1; 12.93 wins), Ravens (Ranked 4; 12.0 wins), Saints (Ranked 5; 11.8 wins), Dallas (Ranked 6; 11.1 wins?), Buccaneers (Ranked 7; 10.3 wins!?), Chargers (Ranked 9; 9.4 wins), Packers (Ranked 13; 8.5 wins), Seahawks (Ranked 16; 7.7 wins), Chicago (6.8 wins), Bengals (3.2 wins). I did not implement pick-sixes, so that may explain the Buccaneers' success. The Dallas high-powered offense was also very successful, but interestingly enough, New England and San Francisco held the two highest positions, while supposedly shining the hardest on defense. The New England results may, however, be due to an easy schedule. Regardless, this may suggest that the Bucs, Cowboys, and Chargers are all poised for success, being simulated as performing 3 wins better than reality. The Lions also deserve a mention, being simulated as 2.96 better than reality. I wish I recorded game statistics such as the number of interceptions, touchdowns, and so on, but I did not do this.
3.3 Predicting a Super Bowl Winner: I simulated the Chiefs vs. the 49ers around 4,000 times and I find a simulated spread of 3 points in favor of the 49ers. It also says that the 49ers have around a 60% chance of winning. Temper these claims, given the spotty (but not too shabby) validation results above, but there is the prediction. I’ve put my money down following it. More results: I get a 10% chance of the 49ers winning by 17 or more, a 25% chance of the 49ers winning by 10 or more, a 25% chance of the Chiefs winning by 4 or more, and a 10% chance of the Chiefs winning by 11 or more. I also ran around 2,000 simulations between both of those teams and the Patriots and the Ravens, and the Chiefs and 49ers both beat each of those other two teams, so we really may have the best possible Super Bowl on our hands.
Table 1 (2019 Season):

Simulated Wins Rank	Team Name	Number of Simulated Wins	Number of Actual Wins	Difference
32	CIN	3.2	2	-1.2
31	MIA	3.3	5	1.7
30	WAS	4.4	3	-1.4
29	NYG	4.6	4	-0.6
28	CAR	5.3	5	-0.3
27	JAX	5.7	6	0.3
26	NYJ	5.9	7	1.2
25	DET	6.0	3	-3.0
24	ARI	6.2	5	-1.2
23	IND	6.2	7	0.8
22	ATL	6.7	7	0.3
21	OAK	6.8	7	0.2
20	CHI	6.8	8	1.2
19	DEN	7.2	7	-.02
18	CLE	7.6	6	-1.6
17	HOU	7.6	10	2.4
16	SEA	7.7	11	3.3
15	PIT	8.0	8	0.0
14	PHI	8.0	9	1.0
13	GB	8.5	13	4.5
12	TEN	8.7	9	0.3
11	BUF	9.8	10	0.2
10	LAC	9.4	5	-4.4
9	LAR	9.8	9	-0.8
8	MIN	10.3	10	-0.3
7	TB	10.3	7	-3.3
6	DAL	11.1	8	-3.1
5	NO	11.8	13	1.2
4	BAL	12.0	14	2.0
3	KC	12.5	12	-0.5
2	SF	12.9	13	0.1
1	NE	12.9	12	-0.9

4. Final words (but really actually mid-way words I guess): I uploaded my Python code to GitHub. The code heavily uses the Pandas and Statsmodels packages. For the most part, the code is undocumented. Surely it is readable though… surely? I wrote a very brief readme generally describing each file of code. Depending on the interest this post receives, I may create documentation. This work would not have been possible without the nflscrapR package, which allowed me to download play-by-play data (kaggle link to pre-scraped data). I would also like to give a shout out to this website where I downloaded historical Vegas spreads in a neat and organized fashion.
5. Building the play-by-play model:
Simulating a game involves simulating each play and element of a play piece-by-piece. By “element of a play” I mean that I first simulate the team deciding to punt or not if it does, then I simulate how many yards the punt moves the ball. If not, I then check whether the team wants to do a field goal, if so, was the field goal successful or not? Then, if the team is not doing either, I check whether the team decides to do a run or pass play. Then, how many yards were attained from the play? Was there an interception or a fumble? Finally, I simulate how long the game clock moved. Each of these choices involves a prediction by a linear or logistic regression. The regressions were, for the most part, fairly standard, and I detail the specific equations I employed below.
However, for predicting the yard distance of the play, I employed a neat trick so that the simulated values approximate what is actually seen in the NFL. This is needed to do as the number of yards that a play acquired s perhaps the most important variable, and its associated real-life distribution is not gaussian. That is, an extremely successful play may move the sticks 80 yards for a touchdown which would be, perhaps, 7 standard deviations above the mean. Hence a prediction would only suggest such a play occurs less often than once in a hundred thousand plays, but in reality, these occur at least one in a thousand times. To make predictions in line with this true distribution, I calculate the percentile associated with my predicted distance relative to all predicted distances. I then use this percentile to look up what the equivalent percentile play achieved in the true NFL data. For instance, I may predict that a play moves 40 yards and among predicted plays, this is the 99th percentile. I then look up what an actual 95th percentile distance play is in the real NFL data and it says that this a 50-yard play. Along with being important for simulating long plays, this is also relevant for creating the distribution around very short plays (i.e., yard gains of zero are disproportionately common). I also applied this method to calculate the time a given play needed. Looking back, the effort invested into making the predictions work like this was probably not necessary.
My simulation of the time needed for each play was a lowlight of this model. Even with the modified regression, I used (similar to the yard movement process), my simulation was creating about 15% too many plays per game. I manually adjusted this by multiplying the time length of each play to be 15% before running the simulations. I may be finding too many plays because I automatically set any play which wasn’t a run or pass to be 10 seconds long. Who knows, this is certainly an outlet for future work. Regardless, this issue related to time may have explained why my over-under lines were bad.
I did not simulate penalties due to time constraints.
5.1 Specific regressions I used: As I said, I simulated each aspect of each play using linear and logistic regressions. The specific definitions I used as defined below. These were designed using my intuition along with a general fear against having too many effects preventing the model from converging if using fewer than half a season of data; this latter restriction limited me from including some interactions which I thought would be meaningful, but perhaps that was for the best to prevent overfitting.
‘yd_gain ~ 1 + time_left\goal_yd + ydstogo + run_vs_pass*pos_team + run_vs_pass*def_team’*
'play_t_length ~ 1 + run_vs_pass\pos_winning*time_left'*
'run_vs_pass ~ pos_team + pos_winning\time_left*goal_yd + pos_minus_def_score*time_left + ydstogo'*
'punt ~ pos_winning\ydstogo*goal_yd*time_left*pos_minus_def_score + pos_team'*
'FG_attempted ~ time_left\pos_down_three_or_less + goal_yd*ydstogo + time_left*pos_minus_def_score'*
'FG_made ~ goal_yd'
'fumble ~ def_team + pos_team + time_left + run_vs_pass'
'fumble_lost ~ run_vs_pass'
'fumble_spot_yds ~ def_team'
'interception ~ time_left + pos_team + def_team'
'int_spot_yds ~ def_team'
5.2 Dependent variables (some are independent variables for other regressions):
yd_gain: Integer representing the number of yards gained (or lost) due to a play
play_t_length: Integer representing the time moved on the game clock due to the play
run_vs_pass: Boolean representing whether a play was a run (1) or a pass (0), this is run before calculating the number of yards gained
punt: Boolean representing whether a punt was performed. Only fourth-down plays were used for training this.
FG_attempted: Boolean representing whether a FG was attempted. Only fourth-down plays were used for training this
FG_made: Boolean representing whether the attempted FG was made or not
Fumble: Boolean representing whether the play fumbled
fumble_lost: Boolean representing whether the defense recovered the fumble.
fumble_spot_yds: Integer representing how many yards the sticks moved due to the fumble
interception: Boolean representing whether the play was intercepted. Only trained using pass plays
int_spot_yds: Integer representing how many yards the sticks moved due to the fumble
5.3 Independent variables:
time_left: Integer representing the amount of time left in the game in seconds. Capped at a value of 900, as teams don’t change their behavior radically between the 1st quarter or the 2nd, and not even really by the 3rd. By capping this value at 900, the regressions yield robustly different results late in the 4th quarter relative to any other time in the game.
goal_yd: Integer representing the number of yards between the start of the play and the goal line (so how many yards are needed for a touch down).
Ydstogo: Integer representing the number of yards needed for a first down.
pos_team: Onehot vector (string) representing the team that has possession (i.e., each of the 32 NFL teams is a different effect). Converting this into some “elo” score would probably be better to prevent overfitting?
def_team: Onehot vector similar to pos_team but now concerned with which team is on defense
pos_winning: Boolean representing whether the team with possession has the lead. Tied games are the same as if the team was losing.
pos_minus_def_score: Integer representing the difference in score between the possession team and the defense team.
pos_down_three_or_less: Boolean representing whether the possession team is down by three or fewer points.
6. Other things: I simulated each matchup between 128-512 times. This is a range because sometimes I was more worried about finishing this project before the Super Bowl, and so I didn’t run it for 512 times. 128 simulations of a single matchup require about 30 minutes. Notably, 128 simulations may be insufficient for firmly converging to simulated spreadlines and was definitely insufficient for converging to win-loss proportions (the 95% confidence interval for a 50% prediction is 17.5% if I only use 128 simulations). Potentially the spreadlines are less sensitive to this, but I can’t at all say for sure. Getting significant results for the tests I show below may be possible if I go and work on seasons before 2018, but that was not possible due to time constraints
Confidence intervals were calculated using the “beta” distribution method (link to Statsmodels package). However, this will be very close to the traditional way of calculating a confidence interval for a proportion [sqrt(p * (1-p) / n)], as my proportions used decent sample sizes and didn’t drift too far from 50%.

I developed a proprietary analysis statistic for the NFL. Without going into too much detail, it basically rewards teams for picking up 1st downs efficiently. I tested it out on 2017 and 2018 and found that the team with the higher stat wound up winning 75% of the games. Furthermore, the farther the spread between this stat the higher the odds of predicting the winner.
I decided to test this theory against an application for betting. I'm a novice bettor, so I haven't placed any real wagers yet, as I'm calibrating and ensuring that this methodology works out over the first few weeks before committing real money to it.
Here is my google spreadsheet with my tracking so far, along with picks for week 3. Feel free to use it for your own gain... just know that it's still being tested out. I don't have a great name for my stat yet, so I'm just calling it "Efficiency" or Eff for short.
I'm sharing for feedback and any ideas that you might have to improve on the model. Thanks!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pVdWok-4J2jMd8bTQlBVjJQWv5AwvhCfCf-ll_o7T9c/edit?usp=sharing
A few other notes on how to interpret the file:

I took all odds from the site My Bookie. It isn't a 'sharp' book, so results here may be bigger than your site, but you can grab a copy of it and fill in the new odds to suit your purpose
I decided not to mess with the spread, so all bets are moneyline. Not sure if this limits my winning potential, but I'm not confident enough to use the metric ATS. Largely because I don't have historical data to test it against.
The Week 1 tab has far fewer tabs because I didn't have to blend 2019 results with 2018 to calibrate recent performance.
I'm evaluating several different strategies, using a different Eff point differential for each one. The higher the Eff point spread the 'safer' the bet. This is what the 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 along the top refer to
I've assumed betting the same amount on every game. This may not be optimal, but for now it makes evaluation of the different strategies easier. If anybody has some helpful advice on how to optimize this, I'm happy to hear your ideas. The global bet can be updated in cell A20
The Eff metric is specific to home and away, as it does have a predictive impact. I looked into using defensive Eff in combination with offensive Eff, but it didn't strengthen the prediction so it's not considered.
The Adjusted Eff metric, at this point, is far from perfect. I think ideally it would create an average based on the last 8 games (home and away), continuously updating. Until I get this programmed so that I can do it efficiently I've hacked it by treating every 2018 game as average. Theoretically a team may be trending upward or downward at the end of 2018 and my methodology right now will not capture and reflect this.
You'll notice columns where I 'placed a bet' that don't jive with the rest of the Eff nonsense. This was my attempt at blending the analytics with my own 'know how.' It's pretty obvious that the blind metric does better than me trying to sprinkle in anything I thought I knew
I'd love to try and find ways to capitalize on situations where it might be better to bet on the underdog, but so far no dice.

What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. Additionally, it was asked earlier in the season for a record of our picks, which I’m happy to announce have been totaled and provided below. Best of luck to all!

DFAroto 2019 NFL Picks

Moneyline: 157/229 (68.55%)

ATS: 123/228 (53.94%)

It may be easier to read on the website: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/wild-card-weekend-matchup-strategy-guide

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5)

Bills ATS: 9-5-2 Texans ATS: 7-8-1
Projected Point Totals: Bills 20.5 Texans 23

Bills

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #22
Opp (HOU) Weighted DEF: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU) Wednesday Report: S Jahleel Addae (LP) CB Jonathan Joseph (LP) LB Jacob Martin (LP) CB Bradley Roby (LP) DE JJ Watt (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF) Wednesday Report: OL Ty Nsekhe (LP) WR Andre Roberts (LP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Cole Beasley (29%) John Brown (21%) Devin Singletary (13%) Dawson Knox (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Devin Singletary (96%, 16, 1) Frank Gore (4%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills dropped a meaningless game in their Week 17 final against the Jets, but with the 5th seed locked up they had no reason to play their starters. Josh Allen (upgrade) played two series, but was mostly kept in bubble wrap in anticipation of this week’s matchup against the Texans. It’s been an up-and-down year for the Bills’ offense, but they’ve ridden Allen’s arm, and sometimes more importantly his legs, to just enough production to give their defense a chance to win games. The Texans defense will be a somewhat favorable matchup in the Wild Card round, as they have the 26th ranked pass defense by DVOA and have given up the 4th most FPPG to QBs this season. Additionally, the Texans have an above average offense, so this game could easily become a shootout if things break correctly. The return of J.J. Watt does provide the Texans with a defensive boost, but it is unlikely that alone makes enough of a difference to keep Allen from producing. For DFS or tournament purposes, Allen is an excellent fantasy target this weekend, his rushing gives him a solid floor and he needs only one deep connection with his speedy #1 WR to hit his ceiling. Consider him at the QB1 level this weekend.
Despite their less than ideal projected point total (20.5) the Bills should be able to attack the Texans through the air. John Brown (upgrade) is the most likely beneficiary of downfield passing this week, as his connection with Allen propelled him to WR2 status in the 2019 season. He will face some combination of Gareon Conley and Jonathan Joseph on the outside, who are ranked 65th and 60th at the CB position, respectively (PFF). The Bills win with their defense and a strong ground game, but investing in Brown this weekend is not a bad idea. The biggest issue for Brown’s value will be whether the Texans have enough success on offense to create a high-scoring environment. In week’s that Will Fuller has been sidelined, which he looks likely to be on Saturday, Watson has been much less effective and somewhat more conservative with his throws (ESPN). Still, Brown should be the main target for a passing game that will take a few shots downfield regardless of game flow. Consider him in the WR2 range again this week with upside for more. Cole Beasley (slight upgrade) is the only other reasonable passing-game target, but his inconsistency makes him tough to get behind. He will at least get an extremely favorable on-paper matchup with slot CB Vernon Hargreaves (ranked 116th by PFF) but the volume is the main concern here. However, as a cheap floor option you could do worse.
RB Breakdown
The Bills starting RB through most of the season, Devin Singletary, was inactive in Week 17, which is further proof for those that needed it that he is the clear #1 back in this offense. He steadily received about 20 touches per game from Weeks 9-16, and should be in that range again Saturday. The Texans are vulnerable to the run - 22nd ranked run DVOA and 5th most FPPG allowed to RBs on the season. The concern with Singletary is his lack of usage in the passing game and near the goal-line. He scored only two rushing TDs on the year, and got over 30 yards receiving just once from Week 10-16 (as he took on a bigger role in the run game). The return of JJ Watt, 6th ranked DE by PFF, should help to shore up the Texans’ front seven a bit. However, the low grades of crucial interior defenders like Brandon Dunn (98th ranked DT by PFF) should likely give Buffalo’s run game a chance to produce. With all of that taken into consideration, Singletary should be treated as a solid RB2 this week considering the Texans weakness on run defense, but he does lack an elite ceiling. Frank Gore is not a realistic fantasy option.

Texans

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #18
Opp (BUF) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF) Wednesday Report: DE Shaq Lawson (LP) CB Levi Wallace (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU) Wednesday Report: TE Jordan Thomas (DNP) WR Will Fuller (LP) WR Kenny Stills (LP) OL Laremy Tunsil (LP)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tre’Davious White (NOT full shadow)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (28%) Will Fuller (19%) Duke Johnson (14%) Keke Coutee (13%) Kenny Stills (12%) Jordin Akins (12%) Darren Fells (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Carlos Hyde (59%, 18, 1) Duke Johnson (44%, 3, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans were in a similar position as the Bills in Week 17, having already locked up the 4th seed and having no incentive to play their starters. So Deshaun Watson (slight downgrade) patiently waited out last week’s loss and will now turn his attention to a quality Bills passing defense. When last we saw Watson in action, he disappointed a host of fantasy owners in championship Week 16 to the tune of less than 10 points for only the second time all season. While it would be unwise to expect such low production again this week in a must-win game, there are a few concerning factors to consider. First, the Bills defense is much stronger against the pass than the run, and have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs on the year. Secondly, with Will Fuller out of the lineup the Texans are not nearly as dangerous through the air. They average 296.8 passing yards per game with him in the lineup, and only 158.3 yards per game without (ESPN). Watson might be a bit of a fade in DFS or tournaments, as his name value may outweigh his actual production on Saturday. Still, he should be viewed on the QB1 level this week as always, as he is known to perform up to the highest standards when the season is on the line.
RB Breakdown
Houston frustrated fantasy owners to no end this year by employing a true RBBC; both Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde were extremely inconsistent fantasy options. Johnson went over 12 points in just three contests this year, and Hyde over 12 points in just four (.5 PPR). Ultimately, their distribution of touches and production came down to game-flow, when the Texans trailed most of the game Johnson racked up targets, while Johnson was more effective in positive game-script. The Texans are home favorites this week, and the Bills have a below average run DVOA, so the script would look to favor Hyde this week. It’s tough to trust either back as more than an RB3, but if forced to target one this week Hyde is the better bet in our estimations. He might make for an intriguing tournament play as he is unlikely to be highly owned. Johnson is an extremely risky play.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 20

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5)

Titans ATS: 8-7-1 Patriots ATS: 8-7-1
Projected Point Totals: Titans 19.75 Patriots 24.75

Titans

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #6
Opp (NE) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE) Thursday Report: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q) DB Terrence Brooks (Q) LB Jamie Collins (Q) CB Jonathan Jones (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN) Thursday Report: WR Adam Humphries (OUT) WR Kalif Raymond (Q) WR Cody Hollister (Q)
Key WCB matchups: AJ Brown vs. Stephon Gillmore (potential full shadow)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): AJ Brown (26%) Corey Davis (16%) Tajae Sharpe (12%) Adam Humphries (12%) Jonnu Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Derrick Henry (76%, 32, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Quite a few fantasy owners were able to ride the late-season wave of Ryan Tannehill (downgrade) production, and the Titans were able to ride him into the playoffs. Their reward? A trip to Foxborough to face one of the best defenses in the league. There are some positives, however. The Pats have been more susceptible to QBs through the last third of the season, allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to the position in the last 4 weeks as opposed to the fewest over the course of the full season. Expect the Pats to do their best to limit the effectiveness of the Titans run game and put the onus on Tannehill to produce. Whether they can actually accomplish this is to be determined, but it is a likely strategy of Bill Belichick. Tannehill isn’t the best fantasy target considering the Pats shutdown capabilities, but as a likely low-owned tourney play, he does have at least a decent floor considering how hot AJ Brown has been the second half of the season. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline this week; just be aware the ceiling isn’t extremely high as the Pats haven’t been involved in many shootouts with their offense struggling throughout the year.
For Dynasty and Keeper league owners, AJ Brown (slight downgrade) has become quite a hot commodity. He led a myriad of owners to re-draft titles as well, but his real value is as a potential WR1 for years to come. This week, he’ll face one of his toughest tests yet, a matchup with the creative and ever-stingy Pats secondary. It’s impossible to know the scheme plan at this point, but beat writers have a few theories about the way the Pats will approach the Titans WRs this week. One analogy that has been floated is that of the Kansas City Chiefs. Tyreek Hill was bracketed by the coverage to always have two defenders paying attention to him, and some expect that to be how Brown is treated. With that element accounted for, it’s possible that Belichick then puts Stephon Gillmore on Corey Davis (downgrade), as he did Sammy Watkins, and allows his All-Pro CB to take care of Tannehill’s second-best option. That would potentially leave Jonnu Smith (slight upgrade) with some solid matchups, as Travis Kelce had that week, but Smith has been a tough option to trust even with Delanie Walker out for the year. Ultimately, Brown is the only player fantasy owners should be confidently selecting from this group, but the matchup has to be considered a downgrade. Consider him a boom-bust WR2/3 in the tough matchup, Davis a low-floor WR4, and Smith an intriguing upside TE1.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps no player was more underrated heading into the season as Derrick Henry (slight downgrade). The former Heisman winner from Alabama was disregarded by many as game-script dependent and unusable in PPR leagues, but turned those notions upside down by winning the rushing title and producing as an elite RB1 in all formats. The Pats will likely look to key in on Henry and force the Titans to throw, but Henry is all but guaranteed 20+ touches, and will get every opportunity to score a rushing TD. He should be viewed as a solid RB1 this week, just with a slightly lower ceiling.

Patriots

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN) Thursday Report: S Dane Cruikshank (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE) Thursday Report: WR Julian Edelman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Adoree Jackson unlikely to shadow
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julian Edelman (25%) James White (16%) Jakobi Meyers (14%) Mohamed Sanu (14%) Phillip Dorsett (11%) N’Keal Harry (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Sony Michel (43%, 18, 0) James White (36%, 5, 3) Rex Burkhead (21, 7, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Patriots shocked the world last week by losing to the Dolphins in a must-win game to secure a first round bye, and subsequently find themselves playing for their lives against a solid Titans squad on Wild Card weekend. Tom Brady (slight upgrade) and the Pats offense were once again unimpressive despite a seemingly strong on-paper matchup with Miami, and there are legitimate concerns that they could be vulnerable to a first round exit on Saturday. Brady started the year hot, but from Week 7-16 he went over 14 points just three times in 9 games. The Titans were more vulnerable to the pass than the run this season, and finished as the 21st ranked pass defense by DVOA. They were middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to QBs on the year, but over the last four weeks of the season they allowed the 6th most points to the position. All that being said, Brady is in an interesting spot. The Pats are projected for almost 25 points, so Vegas expect them to be successful on offense, but his lack of passing weapons is a major concern. Consider Brady a risky but likely low-owned QB1/2; his upside in a winner take all matchup makes him worth a look at the right price.
New England’s WR corps has been a mess this season. The one constant all year was Julian Edelman (upgrade). He’s not at full strength and is listed as questionable, but prospective owners should not be overly worried about his status. Edelman is a warrior who knows how to step up when the stakes are high, as evidenced by his performance in last year’s Super Bowl. His matchup in the slot is a slight plus; SCB Logan Ryan is 57th ranked at the position (PFF). N’Keal Harry (downgrade volume) has been a key red zone target for Brady the past few weeks, but his 9% target share over the last 6 weeks of the season tells a more complete story. He hasn’t gone over 30 yards receiving on the year and cannot be trusted. Mohamed Sanu (downgrade volume) is in a similar position, having gone over 40 yards just once in 8 games for the Pats this year. Ultimately, Edelman is the only passing game option to be targeted, and he is worth strong consideration in any format as his floor is perhaps the highest of all WRs this weekend.
RB Breakdown
The Pats have one of the hardest RB stables to predict each week, so proceed with caution here. Sony Michel is the “early down grinder” and best option for goal-line work, and he was a rare bright spot for the Pats in Week 17 with 74 yards and a TD on the ground. James White remains a high usage passing back, and he secured a receiving TD in Week 17. Rex Burkhead exists only to frustrate White and Michel owners, but did produce well with 7 touches for 54 yards in the finale. The Titans are relatively stout against the run - 10th ranked run DVOA but 10th most FPPG allowed to RBs - but the Pats are in a good position as home favorites. Consider Michel a TD-dependent RB2, White a solid-floor RB2/3, and Burkhead a hail-mary RB3/4. Ultimately we would lean with White in this matchup, as the Titans strong front seven might force Brady to be more active in the passing game and target White considerably with his WR options bare outside of Edelman. But there is no real way to know how it will turn out.
Score Prediction: Titans 23, Patriots 20

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Vikings ATS: 9-7-0 Saints ATS: 11-5-0
Projected Point Totals: Vikings 21 Saints 28.5

Vikings

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #5
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): CB Eli Apple (DNP) S Vonn Bell (FP) S Marcus Williams (FP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): None
Key WCB matchups: Marshon Lattimore vs. Stefon Diggs (PFF)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (23%) Adam Thielen (12%) Dalvin Cook (10%) Kyle Rudolph (10%) Irv Smith (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Mike Boone (57%, 19, 3) Ameer Abdullah (39%, 9, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Vikings head to The Big Easy to take on the Saints in a rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle. Kirk Cousins (downgrade) can’t seem to win big games, he’s 0-9 in Monday Night prime time, including the most recent loss to Green Bay, and sitting at 0-1 in the playoffs for his career (profootballtalk). New Orleans has been very good against opposing signal callers, sitting at 13th in Pass DVOA for 2019, with the No. 10 ranked Weighted Defense - giving up only 15.1 FPPG to QBs and 26.4 to WRs. Cousins will need to be at the top of his game to beat the Saints, and it’s unlikely he’s a viable DFS option this week, it’s preferred to go a different route.
Stefon Diggs (downgrade) is expected to find shadow coverage from stud Marshon Lattimore (PFF’s No. 43 CB). While Lattimore has not played at the elite level in 2019 that he’s demonstrated in the past, the return of NO Safeties Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams further downgrades Diggs and the entire Vikings offense. Cousins and Diggs and the Vikings offense have thrived on the deep ball in 2019: Cousins is ranked 7th for big play passes, completing 35 passes of 20+ yards (stats.washingtonpost), while Diggs is ranked 4th in yards per catch, averaging 17.9 per reception (teamrankings.com). What stands out is the lack of explosive pass plays (20+ yards) given up by the Saints secondary, they only cede explosive plays through the air on 8% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com). It’s more likely than not that this offense struggles to hit on the deep ball, limiting Diggs’ output and viability as a WR1. Treat him as more of an upside WR2 in the tough matchup. Adam Theilen fell out of fantasy relevance due to an injured hamstring, likely burning fantasy managers during championship week. He’s reportedly at full strength again, and should be the X-Factor in this Wildcard matchup. While Diggs has been the deep threat for the Vikings all year, Theilen has been the possession receiver. His value is likely depressed, and he’s worth taking a look at - it seems likely the Saints will choose to take away the deep ball, allowing Theilen to thrive underneath. Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith continue to sap value from each other, and each is no more than a touchdown dependent dart throw. Rudolph hasn’t found pay dirt since Week 13, but seems the more likely of the two to find the endzone this weekend. The Saints cede 6.8 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Using the last several weeks of the regular season to get healthy, Dalvin Cook is all systems go for Wild Card weekend, relegating Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah back to the shadow realm. Alexander Mattison is also healthy and ready to resume his role as Cook’s backup. The matchup is not a good one - the Saints cede just 14.2 FPPG to RBs - however, Cook’s volume and goal line work should keep him in the RB1 conversation. Just keep expectations limited, the Saints are ranked 10th in rushing touchdowns allowed, giving up just .8 per game (teamrankings.com). Plus, NO cedes just 91.3 rushing yards per game, good for 4th best in the league.

Saints

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): CB Mike Hughes (OUT-IR) DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): FB Zach Line (DNP) WR Michael Thomas (FP, expected to play) RB Dwayne Washington (FP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (34%) Alvin Kamara (18%) Jared Cook (12%) Tre’Quan Smith (8%) Ted Ginn (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Latavius Murray (54%, 18, 1) Alvin Kamara (41%, 10, 3) Dwayne Washington (7%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
On the surface, the matchup for the all-time passing touchdown leader Drew Brees (upgrade) is as tough as they come, MIN boasts a top-7 Pass DVOA with the No. 7 Weighted Defense. Yet, the Vikings corners have been far from elite in 2019, with Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 118 CB), Mackensie Alexander (PFF’s No. 51 CB) and Trae Waynes (PFF’s No. 56 CB) all ranked outside of the top-50. Additionally, Mike Hughes (PFF’s No. 84 CB) will not play after being placed on the IR with a neck injury. All of this is to say that Brees is in a position to add some touchdowns to the all-time record. Fire him up as the top QB option for Wild Card weekend. Additionally, this game carries the highest projected point total of the weekend at 49.5, Vegas agrees on the shootout potential that the Mercedes-Benz Superdome provides. MIN cedes 15.1 FPPG to QBs and 23.8 to WRs.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) continues to feast, and this weekend should be no different. Expect him to rack up his usual target share (34%!) and to haul in close to 10 catches. Minnesota will likely try to shutdown the stud receiver, but it’s highly unlikely they are successful in doing so. Outside of Thomas, the auxiliary passing options are a much riskier endeavour. The only viable DFS tournament dart throw is likely Tre-Quan Smith, however, his 8% target share isn’t overly inspiring. Ted Ginn is usually good for a long touchdown or two throughout the season, and since it hasn’t happened yet, maybe he was saving it for 2020. This week probably isn’t the time to bet on the deep ball, as MIN as been very good at preventing explosive pass plays (20+ yards), only giving them up on 7% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com). Jared Cook (upgrade) has been a monster since Brees returned from injury, racking up 12% target share, and becoming the third option in the passing game behind Thomas and Kamara. Minnesota has been stingy against tight ends, only giving up 5.1 FPPG to the position, second best in the league. Cook’s volume should provide a safe floor, and he’s a decent option in the projected barn burner.
RB Breakdown
Surely a disappointment to owners that burned a top-3 pick on him in August, Alvin Kamara draws another tough matchup for the first week of playoffs. The Vikings have been solid against the run in 2019, giving up 108 yards per game, good for 13th best in the league. Expected positive game-flow at home should keep Kamara relevant, but his price may be too high for DFS. Latavius Murray continues to split the workload with Kamara, and is the preferred option for DFS considering his lower price, and that he’s just as likely to find the end zone.
Score Prediction: Saints 30, Vikings 24

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Seahawks ATS: 7-8-1 Eagles ATS: 7-9-0
Projected Point Totals: Seahawks 23.25 Eagles 21.75

Seahawks

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #4
Opp (PHI) Weighted DEF: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): DE Derek Barnett (LP) DT Fletcher Cox (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): T Duane Brown (DNP) WR Jaron Brown (DNP) G Mike Iupati (DNP) WR Malik Turner (DNP) C Joey Hunt (LP) G Phil Haynes (LP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.K. Metcalf (19%) Tyler Lockett (18%) Travis Homer (7%) Malik Turner (7%) David Moore (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Travis Homer (67%, 15, 5) Marshawn Lynch (31%, 12, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After a heartbreaking loss to division rival San Francisco last week, the Hawks go from being a possible 2 Seed in the NFC, to the 5th, and now must travel to Philadelphia to earn the right to play the 49ers again (assuming the Saints take care of business). Russell Wilson (upgrade) would likely be the MVP if it weren’t for a guy named Lamar Jackson, and Wilson gets a much better matchup this week than he did last. The Eagles secondary has been better of late, but even with everyone healthy they are far from world beating. Considering that Philly’s Run Defense is much better than their Pass, expect Russell to be slinging the rock effectively all day - PHI cedes 17 FPPG to opposing QBs, and hemorrhages 27.2 to opposing wideouts.
Tyler Lockett (upgrade) and D.K. Metcalf (upgrade) are the only pass catchers in this offense to procure more than 10% of the target-share, and are realistically the only fantasy options of the receivers. None of the Philly CB’s are imposing matchups, with Sidney Jones (PFF’s No. 64 CB), Avonte Maddox (PFF’s No. 82 CB) and Rasual Douglas (PFF’s No. 109 CB) all ranking outside of the top-50 at their position. Metcalf draws the best matchup advantage according to PFF at +14%, and is a solid play and a good bet to find pay dirt. Lockett sits not fair behind with a +12% matchup advantage, but Metcalf is the preferred play due to the likely lower cost in DFS. Jacob Hollister (downgrade) has emerged as the go-to tight end for the Seahawks, but the matchup isn’t good - PHI cedes just 5.6 FPPG to the position. Plus, the expected return of Luke Wilson could eat into his volume. Fade Hollister this week.
RB Breakdown
The run game was a bit of a mess for the Seahawks last week, but all things considered, it flourishes when it needs to. If it weren’t for an egregious delay of game at SF’s one-yard line, we’d probably be singing the praises of Marshawn Lynch. The Hawks will continue to deploy a RBBC of Lynch and Travis Homer, with Homer being the favorite to receive the Lion’s share of the touches. A major issue for Homer’s value is that he will likely only be used between the twenties again, with Lynch soaking up all short yardage and goal line situations. With both runners capping each other’s ceiling, the backfield becomes a situation to fade - PHI boasts a top-5 Run DVOA and only cedes 15.1 FPPG to the position.

Eagles

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #26
Opp (SEA) Weighted DEF: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): DE Jadeveon Clowney (DNP, expected to play) LB Mychal Kendricks (DNP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): TE Zach Ertz (Q) RT Lane Johnson (Q) RB Miles Sanders (P) WR Nelson Agholor (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Zach Ertz (22%) Dallas Goedert (19%) Miles Sanders (12%) Boston Scott (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Boston Scott (74%, 23, 6) Miles Sanders (31%, 12, 5) Jordan Howard (1%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Philadelphia pass catcher’s have been all sorts of banged up this year, and it’s looking like their leading receiver, Zach Ertz, is going to be a game-time decision for the Wild Card round. Carson Wentz has performed admirably with the injuries around him, but he can’t be recommended as a DFS QB option due to the lack of weapons. Realistically, the only viable play here is Dallas Goedert (upgrade), who stands to gain the most if Ertz misses. Even if Ertz goes, Goedert has been a rock solid option. Add in that Seattle has struggled to guard tight ends this year - ceding 9.2 FPPG to the position, 3rd worst - making Goedert an extremely strong play this week. He’s likely to be a staple of a ton of winning lineups.
RB Breakdown
The Eagles prized rookie Miles Sanders is expected to play this week after leaving last week’s win with an ankle injury. His return relegates Jordan Howard to waiver fodder, but it’s expected that Boston Scott will retain a role in some capacity. Even with a good matchup - SEA gives up 19.8 FPPG to RBs - all the runners offer quite a bit of risk due to the unknowns around role and volume. Sanders is the preferred play, but Scott could very well take on a much larger role if Sanders is limited in any way, or reaggravates his ankle injury. Proceed at your own risk, but picking the lead runner for DFS purposes could very well bring home some cash.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 21

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NFL Week 4 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

For all the fans of Bill Simmons, Scott Van Pelt, or Colin Cowherd out there, we’ve been crunching the numbers for you on their gambling picks. Here is the 2014 ESPN Braintrust's final leaderboard for the of the regular season of NFL & College Football.

Core Plays - Week 8

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Table of Contents

QB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Third Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

QB Fades

Ideal Stack Pairings

RB Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

RB Fades

Standout RB Notes

WR Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

Tier 3

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

The In-Betweeners

Standout WR Notes

TE Core

Primary Tier

Secondary Tier

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

TE Fades

TE Standout Notes

DST Core

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

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NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

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NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

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Tips for Week 13 of the NFL

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Wild Card Weekend Matchup Strategy Guide (DFAroto)

DFAroto 2019 NFL Picks

Moneyline: 157/229 (68.55%)

ATS: 123/228 (53.94%)

It may be easier to read on the website: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/wild-card-weekend-matchup-strategy-guide

GLOSSARY

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5)

Bills

Texans

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5)

Titans

Patriots

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Vikings

Saints

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Seahawks

Eagles

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