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Did okay last week overall (i.e. we were up across the round)despite getting caught out when the Eels dumped/lost Peats and Manly had a few late-outs (although the latter probably didn't matter in the end) which impacts our model - being player based.
This week we see value in 7 of the 8 matches again. I've chucked in our probabilities as well, and as you can see some of them are below 50%, however we still see value at those odds - but you can make your own mind up of course (and also use caution if there are late-outs - feel free to ask about their impact and I'll try and get back to you ASAP):
Dragons @ 2.80 (51%) - our bet of the week
Broncos @ 2.10 (53%)
Raiders @ 2.10 (55%)
Sharks @ 1.30 (89%)
Titans @ 3.60 (41%)
Roosters @ 2.45 (51%)
Storm @ 2.00 (57%)
We have a few other bets, write-ups and other stuff here, but the write-ups have pictures and I'm still too slack to work out a way to paste it in...
Let us know your bets and good luck.

Early NRL Bets - Round 9

Early NRL Bets - Round 10

This week we see value in 7 of the 8 matches. I've chucked in our probabilities as well, and as you can see some of them are below 50%, however we still see value at those odds - but you can make your own mind up of course:
Dragons @ 2.25 (52%)
Eels @ 1.48 (81%)
Warriors @ 2.25 (49%)
Storm @ 2.75 (51%)
Sea Eagles @ 4.60 (37%) - a long shot yes, but our Bet of the Week
Tigers @ 3.55 (40%)
Titans @ 2.75 (43%)
We have a few other bets, write-ups and other stuff here, but the write-ups have pictures and I'm too slack to work out a way to paste it in...
Let us know your bets and good luck.

NRL - Round 13

So a great week last week, although we only had the 2 H2H bets - 2 from 2 is pretty decent, especially when one of them was paying $4+ (Cheers Tigers!) - you can check out our history here.
As for this round, we again only have the 2 H2H bets:
Gold Coast $2.41 (51% prob)
Cronulla $1.89 (69% prob)
We have a few other novelty bets here and a State of Origin write up here.
With the State of Origin we don't see too much value, but you could take advantage of some specials (e.g. Sportsbet and Crownbet both have offers on) if you want to have something on the line.
Good luck with all your bets

AFL Round 12

A good week in AFL last week, lets hope we can back it up.
Have 5 H2H's this week with a lot of close games expected.
Port @1.80 (62% probability)
Brisbane @2.15 (60%)
North @2.05 (60%)
Sydney @1.95 (56%)
Collingwood @2.40 (54%) - BoTW
Have a few line-bets and also a multi, and will be posting our full write-ups on our site as usual... very soon.
Good luck with all your bets

AFL - Round 8

Just 2 H2H bets this week:
Geelong @ 1.92 (60%)
Carlton @ 2.57 (52%)
I'll chuck in our write-ups for those 2 games:
Adelaide v Geelong:
The first upset is the blockbuster to start off the round where the Cats are on fire and should have too many guns for the Crows. Adelaide fans will hate this but the difference in the teams looks to be Patrick Dangerfield which gives Geelong a commanding midfield advantage that we expect to convert into an overwhelming inside 50 advantage to the Cats. With Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts and Taylor Walker - the Crows do have the more potent forward line once it gets in there but weight of opportunity should see Geelong home and our model has a 60% confidence of a Cats victory.
Carlton v Port Adelaide
For our second upset we turn our attention once again to the Blues who have won 3 in a row and we think are a great chance of making it 4 in a row against a flaky (albeit improving) Port Adelaide side. The Blues are at home, virtually at full fitness, are in good form with their defence in particular holding up well and have an in-form midfield (how good is Patrick Cripps!). With Robbie Gray still missing from Port, the Blues midfield will be well placed to once again take advantage of what should be a ruck dominance over a Power side likely to once again turn to an under-sized Jackson Trengove to do the majority of their ruckwork. The big doubt on the Blues is that their forward line is still rated by TipBetPro as the worst in the AFL. However, the likes of Liam Jones and Levi Casboult have shown improved form in recent weeks (albeit from a low base) and Bryce Gibbs looks threatening forward of centre and we think the Blues have enough talent to kick a winning score at home to sneak away with the win.
A few other novelty bets, multis, write-ups and other stuff at our site here.
Good luck with all your bets.

NRL Round 20 Betting

Back again... Coming off a 2-0 week a fortnight ago, it all came crashing down last week in the NRL with a 1-4 week... Thankfully AFL and cricket did better.
Will that mean we go 4-1 this week? I hope so!
Our H2H bets this week are:
Bulldogs @2.95 (48%)
Penrith @4.00 (41%)
Canberra @1.48 (84%)
Gold Coast @1.45 (77%)
Dragons @2.45 (46%)
So 3 against the grain and 2 high probability games.
And yep, those dreaded Dragons came out of the model as a value bet - hopefully they do a better job this week...
And Penrith is our BoTW thanks to those odds, but its one of those lower probability bets that aren't for everyone.
Have full write-ups, reasoning and novelties here, and of course ask questions and give us your tips and bets - you can't have gone worse than us last week (but we are still up 20%+ for the year so its not all bad news).
Cheers and good luck with all your bets.

NRL - Round 15

Well there is only 4 games this week and we only have the one H2H recommendation so I almost didn't post this - but hopefully some others have more (maybe a few line bets or something?).
Storm @ $2.35 (51% probability)
We did have them on at $2.60, but it has come in a bit. At $2.35 it is still a value bet. As always we have our full write-ups and other stuff here, for those interested.
After 2 great weeks of 100%+ profit, we came crashing down last week with a 7% loss. It was probably due and our YTD return for H2H bets is now 36% which is still good.
Also a quick apology for anyone who followed our AFL tips/bets last week - our worst week/round in our 5 years of running the AFL model (by a long way too). The words "an unprecedented disaster" sprung to mind. So after that week, I'm not going to post the AFL tips on reddit, as I only like to post our best stuff here and on current form AFL is not that!
Cheers all and food luck with all your bets

NRL Bets - Round 12

Only 4 NRL games this week due to the State of Origin, and as a result we only have 2 H2H bets on offer:
Wests to beat Brisbane @ $4.00 (44% probability)
Canberra to beat Canterbury @ $1.65 (76% probability)
So 2 bets at different ends of the probability spectrum. Wests are our bet of the week as, due to our model being player based, we see a lot of value in the Tigers. Full write ups here and some other novelty bets.
Our model did okay again last week (~30% return) - the Titans win certainly helped.
Good luck with all your bets.

AFL Round 20 & NRL Round 22 Bets

Didn't have anything on tonight's game, so I figured I'd just wait and chuck everything else up in one post.
In the NRL we were on 3 games:
Parramatta @ 2.95 (44% prob)
Gold Coast @ 1.73 (65% prob)
Tigers @ 2.85 (43% prob)
But that GC game's odds game in very quickly, so line-ball value now at $1.60 if you can get it. (so yeah waiting a few days wasn't a great idea - but they were on the site...)
Meanwhile in the AFL we are also on 3 games:
North @ 1.62 (66%)
Saints @ 1.62 (73%)
Eagles @ 1.21 (94%)
So a bit different to the NRL, backing a few favourites this round in the AFL.
Meanwhile there are all the usual write-ups and novelty bets for AFL and NRL through those links for those that are keen.
Cheers all and good luck with all your bets.

AFL Bets - Round 11

Well AFL hasn't done as well as NRL this season (21% return as opposed to 37%), but historically the AFL model does improve as the season goes on. This week we have 4 H2H bets:
North @ $1.50 (91% prob) - BoTW
Carlton @ $1.28 (87% prob)
Geelong @ $1.50 (72% prob)
West Coast @ $2.10 (52% prob)
We have full write-ups a few line-bets here and a multi of NM/Haw/Carl/Syd/Ade using Sportbets if 1 leg fails money-back special.
Good luck with all your bets.

West Indies v India - 1st Test (Cricket)

Well after a bit of success in the England v Pakistan test (cheers Pakistan!), why not chuck up our West Indies v India tips/bets.
Firstly - this test/series will not be as exciting as the series mentioned above, unless these West Indies newbies have a lot of unknown talent, or they have doctored a pitch that somehow gives them a massive advantage, its hard to see anything other than Indian wins and maybe draws.
Have a full write-up here, but our bets are:
Win/Draw/Loss bet - India @ $1.56 (68% prob) - you can actually get better odds than that, but we try to always quote Sportsbet prices as we don't want to appear as if we cherry pick
No-draw bet - India @ 1.22 (88% prob) - less return, but there may be a bit of rain, so if you want to protect yourself, this is a safer option - albeit somewhat less rewarding.
We think that even given the rain, India should be able to get the job done. They have the bowling and batting advantage, but do sometimes struggle away from home, especially the subcontinent - but not enough to lose to the West Indies who are missing most of their best players to T20 comps around the world.
Good luck with all your bets, hopefully we can make it 6 from 6 in the cricket.
Cheers

NRL - Round 14

Well last week wasn't a huge week in terms of numbers, with again just the 2 H2H bets - but given they both came through it was still a good week. We also had a multi and a line-bet which both came off, so a very good week in the end.
This week we have 5 H2H bets, 3 with an above 50% probability and 2 with a below 50% probability (although one of those is line-ball):
Canberra @3.85 (42%)
West @2.75 (49.9%)
Manly @2.65 (53%)
St George @2.95 (59%) - Our BoTW
Cronulla @1.90 (64%)
As always we have full write-ups and a novelty option at our site.
Good luck with all your bets - hope we have another good one.

NRL Bets - Round 9

NRL Round 19 Betting

Well last week went well, only had two bets and both came in.
This week there a few more games on, so we have a few more bets:
Dragons @2.12 (56% prob)
Warriors @1.72 (73% prob) also Warriors to beat the -2.5 line @1.92
South Sydney @2.75 (46% prob)
Parramatta @3.65 (45% prob)
Sharks @1.48 (80% prob) also Sharks to beat the -6 line @1.92
That's all our bets, you can read the full write-ups at our site.
Good luck with all your bets - come on the Warriors! (did I really just type that?)

Rugby League - State of Origin 2

Well we don't have a lot on (its only 1 game!), but I thought I'd post something to see if anyone else has an opinion/option.
A full write-up is here, but our bets are:
Queensland H2H @ $1.53 (although this only becomes a value bet with a special like sportsbets moneyback if they lose by less than 8)
Qld -5.5 @ $1.92 (was originally -4.5, but -5.5 is still value)
So a couple of options if you want to have a punt on game to of SoO - if not, I'll post our NRL bets later in the week (hopefully more than just the one H2H we had on last week... I hate bye-rounds).
Cheers and good luck

NRL Round 15

Well after last week's bye round (only 4 games) and limited betting opportunities its good to have an almost full round again. The Origin was kind to us last with a win to Qld being some of the easiest money I've made for a while (only paid $1.50 though).
We only have 2 H2H's this week, and neither are favourites (market or ours), but they are both good value bets:
South Sydney @ $2.95 (44% probability) - EDIT - With Reynolds out, as NutBusted has said below, it becomes harder to see a Souths upset... Too late for me, but avoid if you want to avoid the risk (The odds have gone out, and it is still value, but a lower probability)
New Zealand @3.20 (42% probability)
Now as always we have our full write-ups here and some lines (no multi this week). Remember that our recommendations are based off the teams named - so if you think that some players won't rock up due to last night's origin, take that into consideration (and let us know who is out so we can too!)
Good luck with all your bets

NRL Round 23

Another week, another round of betting.
Had 3 bets last week, 2 underdogs and 1 favourite - the dogs won and the favourite lost - oh well, the winning bets were paying ~$3 each so not a bad week at all.
The week with have similar looking bets, so lets hope for similar results.
Manly @2.65 (44% prob)
Warriors @1.35 (83%)
Canberra @2.10 (54%) - it was 2.30, but has come in a bit
So again, 2 underdogs, 1 favourite - but all value bets in our opinion. As always, full write-ups and a few novelties our site.
For those interested we are having a bet on the Eng v Pak test too - not worthy has an extra post on here, but cricket fans may be interested. We have laid 11 cricket bets thus far and all 11 have come in, a small sample size, but nevertheless a good start and hopefully it continues.
Cheers and good luck with all your bets

NRL Bets - Round 8

AFL Round 13

Well I mentioned it in my earlier NRL post - but we had a shocker in AFL last week. So much so that I wasn't going to post our AFL bets until I had got some confidence back into our model - but obviously I went against that and here we are... If for no other reason than to get some conversation started about round 13 - the first of the bye-rounds.
This week we have 3 H2H bets - 1 long shot and 2 more likely options, but all value bets.
North @ $3.90 (36% probability)
Geelong @ $1.69 (62%)
Sydney @ $1.25 (91%)
We also have a multi of Haw/WC/Geel/Syd/GWS @ $3.03 (but as always, multis make the most sense if you use a bookie which offers money back if one-leg loses - this increases the value significantly).
And of course we have full write-ups here.
Now back to that North game. The Hawks should get the job done but we think the market has over-reacted to the outs and the $3.90 on offer for North Melbourne is very generous. Speaking of generous, sportsbet has their big/little margin special on for this match-up whereby you can bet up to $50 on a 1-39 or 40+ margin and as long as your team wins the bet will be refunded. Be warned though if you're planning on betting on both recommended bets - bookies don't tend to like you arbitraging ... so maybe think twice on that or use a 2nd bookie. Complicating matters further, we have the Hawks in our recommended mutli this week (something of a function of requiring a 5 leg multi and there only being 6 games). So, basically there is value every way you look on this game - choose what you like and have a bet on it!
Cheers and good luck with all your bets

England v Pakistan - 1st Test (Cricket)

Yep I know - cricket, especially test match cricket, is probably not the most popular sport to bet on - but I'm a big fan and hopefully there are few of you out there with an interest.
This series is shaping up to be a lot more interesting than the recent England v Sri Lankan series where we only recommended 2 bets (but at least they both won). Pakistan has one of the best batting line-ups in the world at the moment (6 batsmen in the ICCs top 22) and England is without Anderson in the 1st test - but they are playing at home and that's a big advantage when playing one of the "sub-continent" teams.
England are the bookies favourites, and ours, but our recommended bets are:
Pakistan 1st Innings lead @$2.59 (48% probability)
Double Change - Pakistan or Draw @$1.94 (57% probability)
Pakistan series bet at the line +1.5 @$1.83 (i.e. Pakistan to either win, draw or only lose the series by 1 test... its a 4 test series for those new to this)
Have a full write-up here, and you can see our record - but keep in mind this only the second test series we have bet on since we've gone "live" with the cricket.
Share your thoughts and good luck - Come on Pakistan!

NRL Round 18

So few games, so not many bets unfortunately.
Only have the two H2Hs:
Parramatta @ 1.72 (70% confidence)
Sharks @ 2.52 (50% confidence - our BoTW, we think the market has over reacted to the team movements and that the Sharks are still right in this).
We have our normal write-ups and a few novelties here. And somewhat by popular demand, as we've had a few questions about line-betting based off our model over the season, we looked into it and have an article here as well. If nothing else it may provide a few extra options during these weeks with so few games/bets.
They aren't recommended, but I personally have put individual bets down on Parramatta (-2.5), Canterbury (-12.5) and Canberra (-10.5) to beat there lines as we are predicting each of them to win by 10pts or more than those lines - and hey that's what the article says... or I may just be a bored gambler who needed a few extra options this week.
But have a read, give us your thoughts and bets for the week and good luck - Come on the Sharks!

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NRL Bets - Round 11