https://preview.redd.it/ltdmkj0o6ls31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4fdd4c263654179ab0123da1f678b7af2db573ba
Hello everyone!
Tonight we have a wonderful divisional match up to look at. But first, lets recap yesterdays plays.
Singles: 9-6 (+5.2u) Ayyyye, as the data grows, the algo gets better. Singles should stabilize and grow, and by diversifying an abundance our plays we should reduce variance
Parlay: 1-0 (+53u) Whooooo! Our first parlay to pay. This is a great start moving forward. Being able to maximize the free plays and bonus dollars that sites give up adds fantastic, low risk, growth opportunities for the bankroll.
BBDLS: 0-2 (-1.65u) Soooo close here! The (0.3u) wager that included the New England play (+18000) in it missed by a few yards on a toss over the secondary to Edleman. That would have been the highest odds of a play, so far, to cash by this model.
SBBDLS: 0-1(-0.5u) This is an experiment I would like to track this year. I call it my Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot because it is a parlay card at the Ocean Casino in Atlantic City, NJ. (I am sure they have them all over) It is $5 to win $100,000. They usually give between 17-19 selections and you have to go a perfect 15-15 ATS. The spreads are locked when the cards print and occasionally they cancel a games eligibility because a line has moved too much. Last year in the last 8 weeks of the season I went 11, 11, 14, 13, 12, 14, 14, 14 out of 15. In the last 3 weeks of the season when i went 14-15 I was putting in 32 combinations of cards :P \**This is most likely a losing play long term, but who doesn't love a good underdog story! :D*
Teasers: 0-3 (-4.5u) You may notice that I only had one teaser play in my post. The other two losses I commented on early in the day. They were teasers I filled out for bets in the casino. I never posted them, but they still need to count towards totals!!
Monday Night Football (8:15pm)
Detroit @ Green Bay(-3.5/4): We have a tough divisional match up between two probable playoff teams. This game should have some major implications in that playoff seeding. This line opened up at 5.5 (As high as 6.5 at the Coast in Vegas) but has seemed to settle around 3.5, with one 4 available to me. The Lions are coming off a bye after a close loss to KC in a shootout. The Pack are coming off an unexpected win in Dallas that seemed a little bit too easy. First we look at GB offense. Davante Adams is out. Aaron Jones is coming off a HUGE game with 100 yards rushing and 7 receptions for 75 yards. How will he and Rodgers match up against a rested (off a loss and a bye) defense from the Lions that currently has held QBs to an 80.3 (5th) passer rating and 58% (3rd) completion percentage with 7 interceptions! (Tied for 2nd before yesterdays games) Another thing going for the Detroit defense is the probable returns of cornerback Darius Slay and safety Quandre Diggs. These could be very impactful, especially since top WR thread Adams is already off the field and with him, Green Bay has only been completing 30% on third down,. On the flip side, the GB D allows 138 yards rushing per game. As we saw in the Philly/GB game, if a team can utilize rushing, they can have success against Green Bay. Lastly we are going to look at the betting numbers. If we look at the sites for public betting percentages, we see most places have the tickets: GB points around 65% and GB moneyline around 70-75%. Yet the spread and moneylines have decreased. This is usually an indication of professional money on one side, while the public is on the other side. Easy to see in the context of this match up: The majority of the public hasn't seen the lions since they were defeated in a shootout two weeks ago. While the most recent memory for Green Bay is a high scoring smashing on the road in Dallas. As Monday night games are one of the absolute best to fade the public ( the average bettor is either trying to recoup their loses or free roll grow their winnings), I will be rolling with the road dogs tonight. Game script wise, I like them to look to get a lead, utilize the run game, and control the time of possession in what I hope is a low scoring affair. 22-24 Lions would be nice :D
Here is the graph showing the RLM against the public betting percentage.
https://preview.redd.it/jikpr8e49ls31.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e988bc8338743f4b01bd4bac49110654583a453e
Singles 34-37 (-3.25u)
Thanks for reading and good luck to all!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/ltdmkj0o6ls31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4fdd4c263654179ab0123da1f678b7af2db573ba
Hello everyone!
Tonight we have a wonderful divisional match up to look at. But first, lets recap yesterdays plays.
Singles: 9-6 (+5.2u) Ayyyye, as the data grows, the algo gets better. Singles should stabilize and grow, and by diversifying an abundance our plays we should reduce variance
Parlay: 1-0 (+53u) Whooooo! Our first parlay to pay. This is a great start moving forward. Being able to maximize the free plays and bonus dollars that sites give up adds fantastic, low risk, growth opportunities for the bankroll.
BBDLS: 0-2 (-1.65u) Soooo close here! The (0.3u) wager that included the New England play (+18000) in it missed by a few yards on a toss over the secondary to Edleman. That would have been the highest odds of a play, so far, to cash by this model.
SBBDLS: 0-1(-0.5u) This is an experiment I would like to track this year. I call it my Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot because it is a parlay card at the Ocean Casino in Atlantic City, NJ. (I am sure they have them all over) It is $5 to win $100,000. They usually give between 17-19 selections and you have to go a perfect 15-15 ATS. The spreads are locked when the cards print and occasionally they cancel a games eligibility because a line has moved too much. Last year in the last 8 weeks of the season I went 11, 11, 14, 13, 12, 14, 14, 14 out of 15. In the last 3 weeks of the season when i went 14-15 I was putting in 32 combinations of cards :P \**This is most likely a losing play long term, but who doesn't love a good underdog story! :D*
Teasers: 0-3 (-4.5u) You may notice that I only had one teaser play in my post. The other two losses I commented on early in the day. They were teasers I filled out for bets in the casino. I never posted them, but they still need to count towards totals!!
Monday Night Football (8:15pm)
Detroit @ Green Bay(-3.5/4): We have a tough divisional match up between two probable playoff teams. This game should have some major implications in that playoff seeding. This line opened up at 5.5 (As high as 6.5 at the Coast in Vegas) but has seemed to settle around 3.5, with one 4 available to me. The Lions are coming off a bye after a close loss to KC in a shootout. The Pack are coming off an unexpected win in Dallas that seemed a little bit too easy. First we look at GB offense. Davante Adams is out. Aaron Jones is coming off a HUGE game with 100 yards rushing and 7 receptions for 75 yards. How will he and Rodgers match up against a rested (off a loss and a bye) defense from the Lions that currently has held QBs to an 80.3 (5th) passer rating and 58% (3rd) completion percentage with 7 interceptions! (Tied for 2nd before yesterdays games) Another thing going for the Detroit defense is the probable returns of cornerback Darius Slay and safety Quandre Diggs. These could be very impactful, especially since top WR thread Adams is already off the field and with him, Green Bay has only been completing 30% on third down,. On the flip side, the GB D allows 138 yards rushing per game. As we saw in the Philly/GB game, if a team can utilize rushing, they can have success against Green Bay. Lastly we are going to look at the betting numbers. If we look at the sites for public betting percentages, we see most places have the tickets: GB points around 65% and GB moneyline around 70-75%. Yet the spread and moneylines have decreased. This is usually an indication of professional money on one side, while the public is on the other side. Easy to see in the context of this match up: The majority of the public hasn't seen the lions since they were defeated in a shootout two weeks ago. While the most recent memory for Green Bay is a high scoring smashing on the road in Dallas. As Monday night games are one of the absolute best to fade the public ( the average bettor is either trying to recoup their loses or free roll grow their winnings), I will be rolling with the road dogs tonight. Game script wise, I like them to look to get a lead, utilize the run game, and control the time of possession in what I hope is a low scoring affair. 22-24 Lions would be nice :D
Here is the graph showing the RLM against the public betting percentage.
https://preview.redd.it/jikpr8e49ls31.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e988bc8338743f4b01bd4bac49110654583a453e
Singles 34-37 (-3.25u)
- Already have Det ML in my parlay and the under in a teaser. The only other single I looked at was Kerryon Johnson props
- Pittsburgh ML, Detriot ML, NY Giants ML, Jacksonville ML, 49ers ML (4.58u to win 126.6u)
- None
- None
- Detroit +10, Total 53 Under (2u to win 1.82u)
Thanks for reading and good luck to all!
