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A Comprehensive Compilation of All Due Diligence
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
A Comprehensive Compilation of All Due Diligence on $GME
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
This is a rather long one and the last in this particular Universe for a while, enjoy! Admiral Alexis was... Bored... When the usual suspects called for an emergency meeting he expected another war, some sort of political snafu or maybe a major discovery that would require his input. Once he learned how little was at stake he stopped really listening, as far as he's was concerned it was just about someone cheating at video games... ****************************** The War Games had first been introduced as a way to create camaraderie between the races and to have hard data on the strategies and capabilities of the different races. The Noradons had been the only ones who participated along side the Humans. Targeting locks would count as hits for space combat, smoke would be artillery explosions, low level electric batons would be used to simulate blades and good old paint balls for live ammunition. The result was an overwhelming win for the Humans, the Noradons' new Overseer, Talon, was far too direct in his approach, the only victories he achieve were when he had superior numbers and never in defense scenarios. He didn't care for traps, small deployment of troops, scouts, listening to his officers on the ground or any type of subterfuge. The second was a more balanced affair, the Noradons had now far more specialist units and Talon had learned from his mistakes. It was also a lot more popular, it wasn't viewed as a barbaric display of power like the first one but as a more violent sporting event. Thou the second game was better remembered for the arrival of the A/O during the closing of the games. ****************************** The ceremony was finished, everyone was picking up their things and preparing to leave. Kin son of Krono, host of the ceremony at the Commonwealth's HQ had the classic bartender's look that screamed: you don't have to go home but you can't stay here... That is until Lawless contacted him. A massive ship, dreadnought class from the tonnage, had just entered the system, it would be here in mere minutes. Seeing how The Pale Horse and the Queen's Fury, the only known dreadnoughts, were already there this was worrisome to say the least. He urged everyone to remain, not that anyone was going to leave now, this was exactly what the War Games were ultimately about: being ready when the time came to fight. By the time the unknown ship emerged, the Combined fleet, the Noradons swarm along side the dozen or so ships of the Imphlasms were ready for anything, the Va'sh had stayed home. Historians still wonder to this day what would have happened had they been present. The ship was an odd mix of science and gardening gone wrong, an icosahedron with a power signature better measured in stars covered in moss and vines. Admiral Alexis: “Identify yourself and your intentions” Unknown Ship: “We are us, we wish to learn all there is to know” Admiral Alexis: Huh, doesn't sound too bad Unknown Ship: “We wish to be the only sentient races alive!” Alexis: Ah, this would be the other shoe dropping, “We can help you with that first part but do not think we will just allow ourselves to be killed without a fight” The Unknown Ship powered what looked like weapons The fleets above Commonwealth HQ were ready for combat and spread out in loose formations, combat was about to be joined. Than came from Commonwealth's Law a message sent on all frequencies 3.14: “Very well and than what?” Unknown Ship: “... We would be safe and no other sentient beings would add needless variables to the grand equation” 3.14: Grand equation? Have we finally run into civilized alien lifeforms!?, “I assume the grand equation is a single mathematical formula that explains and predicts all things in the Universe?” Unknown Ship sounding happy and not monotone for the first time: “Yes!” 3.14: “So your plan is to remove all sentient beings to make it safe and easier to calculate” Unknown Ship: “Yes, that would be optimal” 3.14: “And you would just exist like that until the heat death of the Universe?” Unknown Ship: “The what?” Admiral Alexis was growing impatient, the Krush ambassador and the Ship had been talking astrophysics for two hours now, the Unknown Ship powered down their weapons into the first few minutes of this discussion and it was looking like there would be no fighting after all. Unknown Ship: “I see, so no matter what, eventually all things would end” 3.14: “It is inevitable” Unknown Ship: “Perhaps, perhaps not, we will think on how to prevent this, it is a far more grievous threat than any alien species consuming us” 3.14: “Yes that would be a worthy endeavor to occupy a mind like... Wait, eat you!?” The threat of conflict over, proper introductions took place, the Ship was composed of two species: the moss and vines was a single plant entity and the ship itself a massive AI, the first true and somehow naturally occurring AI the galaxy had ever known. They had met by accident, the plant life form floated into the hull of the AI on a small meteor and grew there, the AI could easily predict how it behaved, it liked the little plant and they formed a bond. In their travels they intercepted Commonwealth transmissions. The Plant accessed the holo-net and saw that every sentient species ate plants in some capacity, the AI saw the chaos some species were capable off. They decided to strike first but upon learning how all would one day end shifted focus to finding a may to prevent it. They were giving a name: Alpha for being first of their kind and Omega for their shared goal to see that the end never happens, A/O for short. They chose to stay in orbit around Commonwealth HQ, doing nothing of note. Sometimes the AI would discuss theories with the scientifically inclined races on how to prevent heat death and the Plant would have philosophical debates on what constitutes life with the more spiritual races. ****************************** Alexis sighed That was then, this is now Alexis looked at Ambassador Paul trying and failing to convince the others of the gravity of the situation. “This could prove a huge security risk, we must find out who is doing this!” Alexis had had enough “No offense but finding out who is messing with the War Game's holo settings isn't much of a threat” Paul: “The most likely scenario is that someone is interfering with the Games in order to make a large profits from the bets taking place, we must find who is doing this” 3.14: “I'm pretty sure only Humans would do such a thing” He looks at the Admiral “No offence” Admiral Alexis: “None taken, I mean, who else thinks it's Humans?” Lady EliIi: “No doubt” Warlord M'rm'n: “Of course!” Ambassador Uv: “Makes sense” Lawless, the AI of the Commonwealth Law sat at this meeting, she was the referee of the Games “It's Humans, there's no question about that” Paul: Et tu Lawless? “Anyway, I have put top men in charge of finding out the truth” 3.14: “Who?” Paul: “Top. Men” ****************************** Lord Doros was having a bad day, the Combined ambassador had contacted Transit concerning supposed hacking of the War Games. Normally this would be well beneath the 12 Blades but their “failure” with the Diszin incident had allowed the ambassador to call in a favor, so to speak. Lord Doros: Pretty sure we got the job as punishment. He thought back to the morning's meeting Boss: “... And so we have to find who is messing with the Games and why” Everyone looked confused, Lord Doros was fuming... Scout K'r's lifted his paw “Not that I mind but killing someone over rigging games feels like going overboard” G00.106 nods Boss sighed “We are not to kill anyone,we simply report our finding to the officials and arrest the individuals if we can” The specialists in the room said nothing, the shock was total, this mission was not only something they should never have to do but they would have to operate like common... Cops. Lord Doros had had enough “So what's next? Trade disputes? Traffic control!?” Boss: “I understand how you feel but Transit gave us the mission and we must obey” Lord Doros: That was 5 hours ago, now we are on the Commonwealth Law, looking for “leads” Smith was a professional, he was given a task and would complete it, no matter how absurd. He was meeting with Lord Doros, K'r's and G00.106 in the Commonwealth's Law cafeteria, there were dozen of groups of different races all over the place, while most individuals who participated in the Games did not travel to Commonwealth HQ, many coaches, reporters and VIPs did. Which is why Commonwealth Law was used as a safe meeting for these individuals. The media to try to snag any exclusives they could, the VIPs to follow the games along side fellow VIPs and the coaches for the timed honored tradition of getting in the referees face when they had a complaint. Lord Doros was already sitting at the meeting table “So anything?” Smith sat at the opposite side of the table and G00.106 stayed standing her back to the two. Smith: “No luck so far, I talked with a few coaches and the odd VIP but they let nothing slip” Lord Doros nodded, he himself had not found anything and given the levels of security involved he doubted anyone would. “G00.106?” G00.106 shrugged “Not a damn thing, I even tried asking a few males while wearing nothing but lingerie like some of the girls onboard suggested but all I got were screams and a fine for..” She reads her datapad to get it right “... Creepy indecent exposure” Smith had a horrifying mental image and shuddered. Lord Doros shuddered a second later “Thanks for sharing specialist Smith” Smith: “Sorry, the image just, wait a second wouldn't you have gotten the same from G00.106 anyway?” Lord Doros shakes his head “Noradons are now all psychically linked to the Overseer at some level, you can't read one without listening in on all of them so it comes out as static” Smith: “Very well... So i guess we have no leads to follow” G00.106 was slightly insulted by the conversation that had just taken place but decided to move on “So anyway, I doubt it was Noradons, we don't really do the whole crime thing” Lord Doros nodded Smith: “Has anyone seen K'r's? It's not his style to be late” Lord Doros opened his eyes wide and looked up Smith and G00.106 followed his gaze. K'r's was sitting above them on a lamp, his green coat and pants were torn in places, his beret was missing, chunks of fur looked to have been ripped off and he had a thousand yard stare that spoke of unimaginable horrors. Smith: “What the Hell happened to you!” K'r's grabbed a flask from inside his coat, unscrewed the lid and took a sip “Ran into Captain Grace” He than took a much, much larger drink, never making eye contact. Smith bit his fist and looked away. G00.106 separated her arms, jumped into the pole holding the lamp and grabbed the Va'sh, cradling him like a new born larva and looked at Lord Doros “Permission to take specialist K'r's to the ship for medical care!” Lord Doros nodded solemnly “Granted” Smith and Lord Doros watched her run to their shuttle Smith looked concerned “Poor bastard...” Smith than shifted to looking as chipper as ever “So anyway, I doubt the Noradons had anything to do with the hacking, I mean there's no such thing as Noradons' organized crime after all” ****************************** Late at night, in the middle of the workers district of the Commonwealth Capital, a G00 unit wearing a brown trench coat and a black hat was slowly making her way to a bar. She approached carefully, looking into every shadow and jumping at every noise, she had what looked like an Xmas gift in her hand. The box was small and by the looks of it had been wrapped by a child... Or a really drunk adult. She eventually gathered her courage and knocked on the bar's door, two fast knocks followed by two slower ones. The door opened a tiny fraction, the “gift” was quickly exchanged for a grey bag of unknown content. The G00 unit left, practically running. Inside the bar the bouncer, a soldier Noradon, wearing a tuxedo and sunglasses made his way to the back. He walked calmly, the sentients drinking and smoking paid him no attention besides the occasional nod, which he politely returned. He entered the VIP room, Big Vinny, the proprietor of the establishment: the Carlito's Way, was sitting on his leather couch. He was wearing a white suit with a matching ascot, a gold chain and a massive silver ring on his dorsal right hand. Big Vinny was an engineering drone, smaller than the average Noradon to more easily get to tight places and with three digits per arm instead of claws to use precision tools. Not that Big Vinny was small, he was overweight which to a Noradon with a perfectly genetically built gastric system was no small feat. The bouncer, Tony, handed him the gift, bowed and left the room. Vinny waited for Tony to leave before opening the package, inside was a box of chocolates, sixteen total. He smiled Best way to get a message without risk of it getting intercepted? Code it using foodstuffs. He put the chocolates in order, the shapes symbolized the events taking place in the following days, the filling who would win and the individual wrapping's color the optimal spread. He committed the information to memory and ate the evidence. Taste like... Profits! ******************************** The Games had being a huge success so far, the Humans were leading by a razor thin margin. The sabotage event was a surprise steal by the Imphlasms following the sudden rain that made Va'sh guards miss their approach until it was too late. They than lost the retrieve and salvage mission to the Human team who won on a technicality The Human field engineer was quoted saying: “The rules said we had to get the ship back faster than the other team, never said nothing about it not exploding or having it's crew making it out alive” Which was true, thou the rules would certainly see changes for the next Games. This year marked the first time the War Games would shift from live exercises to holo-space recreations. As such many more species joined this time around, most were out of the running by this time however. The Humans lead by a single event, the Noradons were in second place, the Va'sh in third and the Impshlasms in fourth. Today was the last four scheduled events: base defense, VIP assassination, survival on a Deathworld and the three-legged race, no one was certain how that last one ended up there... The Noradons had pulled an upset on the base defense by outsmarting the human attackers, they used the molted exoskeleton of their soldier caste to have their engineers hold the front gate while the soldiers burrowed beneath the entrance and slaughtered the attackers in the resulting pitfall trap. The VIP assassination had been won by the Va'sh, the human guards had a hard time pulling the trigger when they attacked and the Noradons and Imphlasm simply weren't fast enough. Thou the moment a Human sniper managed to get his laser sight on the Va'sh VIP, which resulted in his guards accidentally mauling him to death, was considered a Pyrrhic victory. Smith had been watching the whole thing from his now usual cafeteria table, not much to do when he had already spoken to anyone who allow him to get close to them. I hope the others had better luck... Lord Doros approached him and sat down “I have managed to find no leads” Smith didn't look at him, to anyone else watching, the Aaen had just whispered to himself. Is the kitten doing okay? Lord Doros: “He'll be out of med-bay in a day or so” Smith gave a barely perceptible nod G00.106 arrived at the table, she looked in a hurry “I have a lead! What do you know of the Carlito's Way?” Lord Doros and Smith looked at each-other nonplus Smith adventured an answer “... I don't like the ending I guess?” G00.106 looked at him like he was an idiot “What? No I'm talking about a bar in the Commonwealth Capital, Solenia” She explained how one of her sisters from her hive back home contacted her, to let her know if she wanted in on a gambling scheme she was part of. “I've made 4 times my initial bet so far!” Was what she had told her. G00.106: “My guess is that they're somehow behind the hacking, like the rain that costed the Va'sh the sabotage mission or the Humans weapon misfire when the Va'sh attacked their VIP” Smith: “I don't think the weapons mis... Anyway, should we contact Lawless and check this bar out?” Lord Doros: “Yes, this seems like a solid lead” ****************************** Smith, Lord Doros, G00.106 and Lawless made their way to the Carlito's Way. Lawless insisted on joining the team, citing how as the referee of the Games it was her duty to see those who would defile it brought to justice, thou Smith thought the AI was probably just looking to get away from the incessant complaining from the coaches... They found the bar with no issues, it had all the proper permits and all taxes were payed. Lord Doros: “G00.106, you take point” G00.106 hesitated “Shouldn't Smith do it?” Smith: “Normally yes, but you have an actual “in” with the crowd we are trying to infiltrate, I will enter with you as a friend looking to make some money, than” He points at Lord Doros and Lawless “They come in later as a couple looking for an out of the way place to have a quiet drink” Lord Doros: “Anything goes wrong, we back you up” Smith trying to be reassuring “See, nothing to be worried about” G00.106: “Right. Got it!” She than kicks the door open and while holding her shortened carbine yells “Nobody move! We know you're conducting illegal operations, you're all under arrest!!!” Smith and Lord Doros thought at the same time If we survive I'm killing her myself Lawless grins, produces a kukri from under he coat and stands in front of G00.106. The people at the bar barely seem to notice and quickly return to their drinks and talks. Smith and Lord Doros reluctantly drew their pulse pistols, enter the bar and stood by their colleague. Smith: “When we get back, if we get back, we need to talk about your infiltration skills” G00.106: “Why?” Before smith or Lord Doros could answer, or shoot her, the door in the back opens. Big Vinny, with Tony in tow, appear. Smith: What the Hell, a Noradon... Don!? He seems very calm and he speaks softly as if to an old friend's kid he's trying to explain a complicated notion to. “What, if may ask, is the reason for this loud and quite frankly disrespectful scene in this, my humble establishment?” G00.106: “We know what you're doing and you're going to prison, if we don't kill you right now that is!” Vinny undisturbed “I find such a thing rather difficult without any evidence and for any threat against my person” Vinny snaps his fingers Half the bar draws weapons and Tony gets in front of his boss, the infiltration team is now outnumbered five to one Vinny: “You will find it a... Difficult task” Smith was curious, if he was going to die today he just had to ask “Okay, what's with the outfit?” Vinny, positively beaming “You like it? I modelled it after Tony Montanas's suit in Scarface” Smith, now less curious and more confused “The movie?” Vinny: “Yes, we like your “mafia”, quite a novel idea” Lawless: “Yeah well, organize crime is nothing new and even if you get rid of us more will come” Vinny: “Crime? What crime?” G00.106: “You rigged the War Games and make bets on them, my sisters called me and told me all about it!” Vinny got in front of Tony, he was frowning “Did she tell you we were actually fixing the events?” G00.106 seemed a lot less confident all of a sudden “Well not in so many words, no” The rest of the team looked at her and than at each-other Vinny: “We have a group of ex-military professionals analyze the strategies of the teams and a Krush run the odds, than we place bets on events where the margin of error matches the betting spread” Smith: “So you aren't the ones hacking the Games?” Vinny genuinely surprised “The Games are getting hacked!? Well, we have nothing to do with that, we're just honest mafiosy” Smith still concerned and very aware of the multitude of guns pointed in their direction. “You do know they're the bad guys right?” Vinny: “Of course but that's because they break the law” G00.106: “Ha! Like you don't” Smith came to a horrible realization “Lawless could you run a quick background check on the people here for outstanding warrants” Lawless closed her eyes for a second, smiled awkwardly and sheathed her kukri. “No criminal records, not even a ticket and they have permits for those guns” Lord Doros: “It seems we made a mistake” Vinny: “Quite so but don't worry, this was exhilarating! Rocco Two Hands had been itching for a reason to draw his guns” Vinny waved at Rocco, who was standing behind Smith Smith looked back expecting a Noradon with only two arms but what he saw was a Noradon drone with all of his arms and a backpack with another set of four mechanical ones allowing him to hold eight guns total, all aimed at his head. Smith: “Rocco TWO hands?” Vinny: “It's short for Two Sets of Hands, alright fellows put the hardware away, you're scaring the tourists” At this the entire bar sat down and no one even looked at the four who now awkwardly sheathed and holstered weapons before leaving. Vinny as he waves them good bye “Arividerchi!” The four walked in silence for a while until Lawless spoke “This never happened, agreed?” No one said anything, there was no need. On the way back to Commonwealth Law Lord Doros got a message on his datapad “We have a new mission” ****************************** Lawless was spectating the survival event of the games in the cafeteria. We didn't find the culprits, we didn't even find how they did it... Thou given how they could have done much worse than add random shit I guess we should consider ourselves lucky. A/O had joined the other VIPs, they were curious about how things would turn out. He approached in his holographic avatar, a small crystal cube with a single leaf inside it. “Greetings Lawless, are you enjoying the Games?” Lawless: “Yes, kinda” A/O: “Is there something not to your liking? I could modify the templates further” Lawless stopped looking at the screen and turned to the floating cube “I'm sorry, modify the templates further?” The cube floated up and down, trying to imitate a nod “Yes, we found the games too easy to predict, so we added semi-random events to make sure the Games remained interesting” Lawless, was at a loss for words an entity that wanted to boil down all the universe to a single equation had somehow hacked into the Games to “spice things up” She mulled over a few words, a couple of ideas and just... Gave up, they hadn't hurt anyone and at least they showed an interest. She resumed watching the screen. “Just out of curiosity, are there any modifications to the current event?” A/O: “Yes, in the next 12 seconds the tectonic plates where the teams are situated will begin to move” Lawless: “An earthquake?” A/O: “Correct” Lawless: “... During the cooking portion of the event?” A/O: “Is that a problem?” Screaming and some really ingenious curses can be heard from the screen as holo projections of the teams catch fire, fall face first into their food or right into their makeshift cauldrons. Lawless shrugs “I guess not” ****************************** Captain Grace was on a mission, she was stalking a beautiful Va'sh, a white angora kitten wearing a butlers' outfit! She applied some more scent blockers, checked her ceramic second skin under armor, activated noise cancellers on her boots and a camo-suit to become virtually undetectable. The kitten took a turn into a cargo hold, she followed slowly and when she felt the Va'sh couldn't possibly dodge her, she jumped! The hologram disappeared and the door locked behind her. Before she could look behind, someone had put a bracelet on her right hand and in the time it took her to look at it an identical one was put on her left hand. Grace: “What is the meaning of this!” Smith and Lord Doros simply pointed up, to a viewing window Grace looked up and paled, Admiral Alexis, Warlord M'r'm, Alisia Black, Lady EliIi, 3.14, Ambassador Paul and the Uv Ambassador were looking down at her. Alexis: “Grace you have gone too far, consider this an intervention” He pushed a button and the holographic butler kitten re-appeared. Alexis: “This is a hard light construct of a real Va'sh, you have only one thing to do, pet the kitty” Grace was scared but she acquiesced, not that she had a lot of choice... All those watching winced Lord Doros and Smith made it in time to catch the “petting” Lord Doros: I heard the Human expression “there is more than one way to skin a cat”, I guess one of them is to let Captain Grace pet it... After a couple of minutes Captain Grace stopped “It's not the saMEEEEEE!” An electric shock shot out from one bracelet to the other Grace: “What the Hell was that!” Admiral Alexis: “That was a mild shock, you will get hit by one every time you pet the Va'sh too hard” Grace: “Mild shock!? Are you kidding me?” Alexis, now looking quite angry “No, this is no joke, now Pet. The. Kitty!” A few hours and several thousand volts later Captain Grace looked rough, her ponytail had come undone, actually quite a bit of her hair had curled and some of it was smoking. She had a weird twitch on her left eye and as far as Admiral Alexis could tell she stopped blinking a while ago... Alexis: “See, that wasn't so bad?” Captain Grace in a monotone voice “Yes, not so bad” Warlord M'rm'n felt generous and removed his tricorne hat and offered his head to the Captain. “Here” Captain Grace hesitated but ultimately pet the Va'sh head, very gently M'rm'n: “That was nice” Captain Grace than began twitching uncontrollably and fell to the ground, hugging her knees “pet the kitty, pet the kitty, pet the kitty...” Everyone stared Eventually Lady EliIi felt the need to say out loud what everyone was thinking “We might have gone too far” Warlord M'rm'n shrugged “She got her hands on the Emperor nephew last week, the video of today's intervention should be enough for him to call the hit off” Admiral Alexis looked at the Va'sh with a mixture of shock and anger “You're kidding right?” The Va'sh grinned and Admiral Alexis chose to assume it was a joke, Alisia Black knew better however... Captain Grace spent a few days in the infirmary of her own ship and is now famous, rather than infamous, with Va'shs throughout known space! The way she gives the softest pets and how she goes completely catatonic after has made her quite popular...
The Current OP Meta is a Result of all of Valorant's Combined Flaws.
Hey guys, I'm a 10 year CS player here. Previously played at Level 9 Faceit and A - ESEA. Have probably 1000+ hours of watching pro games under my belt, and even more spent in KZ and HnS servers. I love Valorant, and I love a lot of what they're trying to do with this game in comparison to CS. But, I think the current OP meta is a result of almost every short coming the game has right now (for the most part). Firstly, I think it's important to preface this by saying that Valorant is 100% by design, made to be easier / more approachable than CS:GO. You can see this in almost every aspect of the game. If it's something that was intimidating to new players in CS, it's been massively simplified here. Spray patterns are far less aggressive. Lineups have been almost entirely eliminated, or completely streamlined. Movement speed has been reduced to allow for easier tracking and aiming. Counter-strafing has been forgotten and replaced by instant momentum. Even the slight advantage you got from good movement (brought along by thousands of hours of practice in CS:GO) has been entirely eliminated by a massive simplification of movement in general, as well as how severe tagging is. I'm not saying these are negative aspects of the game. I understand almost if not all of these changes. Tons of these choices succeed in their desired goal, and it's lead to tons of my friends enjoying this game despite never getting more than 4 games into CS. With all that said tho, lots of these choices indirectly feed into the current OP meta. I don't say this lightly either. If you were to directly compare the AWP and the OP, the AWP is hands down 3x more powerful than the OP currently is. It boasts :
More ammo overall, and more ammo per clip.
Instantaneous ADS, and instantaneous Accuracy after scoping in. (though this is more a trait of all scoped weapons in CS:GO)
Better hip-fire accuracy.
Higher ROF
More forgiving movement accuracy
//Thanks to u/IAmNotOnRedditAtWork for pointing some of these out as they escaped me I have a shortish video on this, with some old community server / lower level faceit games. It's presented as more of a frag movie than anything so there's no need to watch it, but I do think it can offer some important context when talking about how insane the AWP actually is for high level players. I've edited it to have specific time stamps in the description so that you can jump between the clips that are actually relevant to this discussion. Turn down volume as there is music and I'm sure its obnoxious. Here you go Despite the obvious advantages the AWP has, we don't really see it being as prevalent and oppressive as we do in Valorant. We do not see double AWP and Triple AWP rounds being NEAR as viable as they are here, with triple AWP rounds being almost nonexistent. I chalk this up to quite a few things :
Movement speed. I think this is discounted quite a bit by nearly everyone. But people fail to realize how big of a deal this really is. I don't think I need to elaborate on this too much. But I think it's important to highlight "punishing" an AWPer. Typically, in CS you're only going to punish an AWPer if they miss their shot. Sure you can smoke them off or flash them, but typically at a high level they'll be playing in a position where it's easy to fall back and avoid being traded if they do get flashed off their angle, that is until you're on site. (Also important to note that not all AWPers play aggressive at lower levels). If it's mathematically easier to hit shots in Valorant, you bet your ass this is having an overall effect on how consistent this weapon can perform. It also (purposefully) eliminates the usefulness of jiggle peeking or baiting shots, which is a massive part of counter-play in CS. I'm not saying they should increase movement speed. I just think pointing this out is healthy for understanding and discussing this topic as a whole.
Movement Speed pt. 2. On top of movement speed in Valorant being much lower, many CS players will probably tell you that the way in which you move in Valorant is instantaneous. There is no counter strafing, and as a result, if you were to stand still, and then start running, you reach your max velocity almost immediately, if not immediately. This is the same in reverse. You lose your momentum the second you let go off WASD, your momentum being what brings about innaccuracy. This allows the OP to be hyper aggressive in situations where it shouldn't be. Period. You can hold an angle, whiff your shot, and then repeek that same angle aggressively all because you have no aim penalty within a time frame where your aggression should be punishable. In CS:GO the max velocity is higher, and the acceleration has a longer time between min and max. This makes it so that repeeking an angle has a window of innaccuracy that is PARAMOUNT in balancing for a weapon like this. The OP in Valorant currently has little counter-play outside of maybe DDoSing your opponent and hoping they miss shots.'
Utility. This isn't a secret. Most the player-base is probably aware in some form that this is having an effect on the meta. On top of there being very little vision limiting utility (smokes), I think the lack of counter play regarding flashes is also an issue. In CS, it's usually quite easy to see a flash coming, and depending on your weapon and/or position, either turn and avoid the flash, or to turn and run entirely. Sometimes if it's a pop flash you'll tank it and pray you don't die. But in Valorant, the flashes are very very quick to pop, and they last almost no time at all. You can't act off your own flash at all on most angles, and ton's of choke points require you to walk a distance where the flash is entirely negated anyway. For instance, Ascent A site. If you flash from main the distance between main and site is large enough that most people holding close aren't going to be flashed by the time you're pushed up. So maybe you get the AWPer off the long angle they're holding, and then you start pushing only for the person holding close to take contact and have the AWPer peek back out. This is why we see Phoenix being so viable in TSM's lineup. Flashing out smokes gives the entire team the biggest possible window in order to act on that utility. It's basically equivalent to a pop flash in CS, and also allows you to have more control over where you're flashing onto a site. So you can flash and pop out of the smoke much quicker than if you were around a corner, and you can also flash much deeper into a choke point then you'd normally be able to. That said, this is not a direct counter to OP meta. It's just an issue with flashes I've noticed, and a sort of "work around" I've seen take center stage.
And this kinda brings me to my next issue. And probably the one we all should have expected.
Map design. Outside of most the maps feeling incredibly linear, and despite them feeling like Hallway simulator 2020. I think there's another issue in relation to thoughtful map design. One of the things I mentioned above was how certain elements were streamlined, in relation to utility mainly. This, in my opinion, also relates to the map design.
CS has very tried and true bits of utility at play. Smokes, Mollies, and Flashes. When you play CS at a level where executes are necessary, it's actually quite fascinating to learn how each map has been designed with utility constantly in mind. Cache B site for instance, there's a window directly above site meant for throwing utility. Mirage A has a massive area above ramp for throwing util. Inferno Apts even has fucking windows on the opposite side of site, with a chimney adjacent to them in order for you to bank utility off of. Dust 2 recently underwent a change in B tuns to allow for more utility and site executes given how hard the site was too take control of. Whether it be on attacks or retakes. Valorant has streamlined "utility" so much, that they've forgotten the exact reason why it was implemented in the way that it was in CS:GO, and why it worked so well. Valorant has thrown thoughtful map design out the window in favor of meaningless gimmicks that fall flat after your 5th game on the map. Guess what Riot, I don't care about opening and closing destructible doors, or ropes that give you a surprising amount of velocity and accuracy while attached, and definitely not 3 fucking sites. I play ranked games where my opponents go 3-14 and then start fragging out when they decide to whip out the OP. The gun is too easy to use and it sports almost zero counter-play. IT IS AN ISSUE. I understand not jumping the gun and rushing towards some half ass balancing decision, but you've been so quick to address smaller issues that didn't actively suck the fun out of the game and reward players for using an obvious crutch. // People have pointed out some poor phrasing on my part here, would just like to iterate that I'm not against these kinds of gimmicks, they have a place and I don't mean to undermine anyone who enjoys them. I just think these gimmicks are being used in place of good map design. Sort of a "sure ascent is a terrible map but here are some doors you can open and close, this one has ropes!" Ascent is the closest map to CS design we currently have in Valorant in my opinion, and it still ignores most of what made those maps work in the first place. Scrap the gimmicks. Nobody wants this random shit. I want maps with intelligent design choices, meaningful spots for fair trades at the beginning of rounds, I want maps designed with rotates in mind and counter-play at heart. You can tell CS maps are designed with all the games utility in mind. I'm constantly reminded that I can't say the same about any of Valorant's maps. With that being said, what are some ways to fix these issues?
Add a slight time frame with the OP that adds inaccuracy after moving, keep this outside of movement speed, have it be its own value. For instance, if you scope in with the OP, then strafe to the side and stop moving, add an extra .5 or whatever amount of time where there is still an innaccuracy debuff applied. OPs are meant for holding angles, they are already ridiculously good at that in this game. Punish them for playing aggressive.
Phoenix's flash needs a slight "rework" to come more into line with vision blocking utility in relation to cutting off angles. Phoenix's flash shouldn't pop so quickly. I think it sports niche usability with little counter-play. When throwing out Phoenix's flash, have it hover in air at the very end of it's duration while giving it an obvious "charge-up" animation, give a larger (but still small) window in order to either back off an angle, or to turn your back too it, and then have it pop, and increase the time frame in which you're flashed slightly. I also considered having Phoenix be invulnerable to his flash, as a way to give Phoenix a way to more reliably entry, while still forcing him to play slightly outside of his team in these situations, (or risk flashing them). This promotes playing anti flash and/or less predictable and maybe even more dangerous positions in order to deny Phoenix this ground when he attempts to entry. I think it adds a reasonable amount of counter play in a game that severely lacks it currently, I think it gives Phoenix some needed independence and room to make these types of solo plays, while also letting an agent specifically gain ground around OPers. I think a good way to envision this is Ascension A site. Instead of OPing heaven when you know Phoenix likes to flash in from main and push you off your angle, you can play on site to the left, and play anti flash in order to kill him when he attempts to entry. Diagram Here
LET YOUR COMMUNITY DESIGN MAPS FOR YOU. For the love of god the fact that I even have to say this makes me angry. Community interaction has lead to CS being the powerhouse of an E-sport it is today. Volcano's involvement is proof of this. No one is saying you have to add them as actual competitive maps, but acting like you can produce better content than your entire community is ridiculously naive when you've already shown that's NOT the case. Add some kind of community tool for your players to design maps, and have some kind of game mode that rotates these featured community maps every couple of months or something. Even if it's just to give the team at Riot ideas and inspiration. I was worried months ago when you said you weren't going to allow even the most basic of community creativity in this regard. It's okay to be wrong Riot. Valve was smart enough to realize the community could carry some of that workload, while also teaching them and giving them inspiration. Volcano is on your dev team because of this reality.
[Beginning | Continued from Pt I] Getting her big confession off her chest left her feeling…lighter, somehow. It helped that the twins, once they’d accepted it, were throwing themselves into helping her with their usual limitless enthusiasm. It was a slow and easy walk down Mount Messier, and Walker was setting a gentle pace so the Rangers could talk among themselves. “So are you gonna go for doctor or nurse?” Nikki asked. “I mean, I know folks are probably gonna ship back up here if they need a surgeon or whatever, but—” “I guess I’ll see which one calls to me more,” Amber said. “I mean, I’ll have barely started my apprenticeship by the time I go down there. It’s gonna take years before I’m qualified either way.” “You’ve definitely got the brain for it,” Roy said. “I don’t think I ever saw you read the same book twice.” Nikki chuckled. “And you can barely read a book once. You’d be a terrible nurse.” That of course offended Roy’s pride, and he leapt to defend his ability to do absolutely anything well. “Nuh-uh! Nurses have to move folks in and outta bed, right? Gotta be good and strong for that. And I’ve done dirty jobs, I could totally change folks’ clothes, clean ‘em up…” “Roy, I think your ideas about what nurses do might be a couple hundred years out of date,” Amber told him. “Whatever!” Roy snorted “I could still do it!” Amber and Nikki met each other’s eyes, and wordlessly agreed not to humor his competitive instincts any further. “I wonder how quickly you’ll go?” Nikki mused instead. “Pretty quick, I hope…” Amber said. “I mean…I don’t mean, uh—” “Relax, dork,” Nikki gave her a gentle knuckle in the arm. “So you’re eager to get on with it. We get it. We’re not completely useless meatheads, y’know.” “Sorry.” “I mean, I guess you’re right…” Roy said. “Seems kinda dumb that we spent all our lives flying here and me and Nikki aren’t gonna live down there…” “Somebody’s gotta look after the launches and stuff,” Nikki reminded him. “And we’re good at it! Hell, we’re about the best at it, too!” Amber nodded. She’d recently visited the pair when they were at work on the outerdecks maintaining Dandelion’s huge launches, and the gravity out there had been oppressive. With it being bit over two Gs at launch level, she’d felt like there was a second, invisible Amber sitting on her and dragging on her arms. Just standing up had been exhausting, so how the twins, their dad, or the hundreds of other outerdeck engineers managed to work full day shifts was beyond her. Seeing Roy casually hang one-armed from a launch’s ceiling while he inspected behind a panel, easily pulling himself this way and that, was impressive enough. Watching him fling himself through that opening and up into the launch’s guts without so much as a grunt of effort—using just that one arm, and with the other hauling on a heavy-looking tool-kit, no less—that had been enough to drop her jaw. It wasn’t surprising in retrospect—all outerdeck engineers were functionally monkeys, in her experience—but seeing what that meant up close was another thing entirely. They weren’t even in the deepest gravity, either. The outermost decks were just over three Gs and the outrigger pods were even worse. Amber knew she couldn’t stand in such oppressive gravity, but she had no doubt Roy could handle it. For once he’d been clothed head-to-toe in a launch engineer’s safety clothing: boots, pants, a tough long-sleeved shirt, and stout work gloves. He couldn’t have been comfortable, though. His work shirt had been completely drenched through with sweat, and his face had been ruddy from the work. Nikki hadn’t been much better off herself, as she’d been tending to the tools and staging all the incomprehensible equipment Roy was ripping out and replacing. Even so, Amber had watched them work for a long while, and at no point did either of them show any signs of slowing down. At all. Amber couldn’t say the same, and she didn’t dare sit down for fear she might not be able to stand back up. It had all been worth it, though, just to see their faces when she unveiled her gift—a massive beef and broccoli stir-fry with jasmine rice, their favorite. She was going to miss them terribly. “I guess it’s also, like…I know this ship,” she said and looked around at it. As stunning and weird as the biodeck was, she’d seen the same view every day for fourteen years, and from pretty much every angle. It wasn’t that she was bored of it, exactly, but it was familiar. “I don’t know what it’s going to be like down on Newhome. That…calls to me. I mean, imagine being the first human ever to climb a new mountain!” “That would be pretty cool,” Roy admitted wistfully. “Or building a town from the ground up…” Nikki added. “Imagine building someplace brand new for people to call home…” “Are you thinking of coming with me now?” Amber asked, half-jokingly. Roy stopped in his tracks and gave her a serious look for a moment. “…Nah,” he decided. “I mean, it sounds cool, but there really aren’t many people who can do what we do. DANI needs engineers like me and Nikki.” “We fit up here,” Nikki agreed. “We’ll still visit, though! And I’mma climb that mountain, too!” “Of course you will!” Amber grinned. “But I’ll have climbed it first.” “Atta girl!” Nikki gave her a hug, then gestured to pick up the pace by trotting ahead a short ways. “Come on! If we get back down to the lake before the rest of the troop, we can go for a swim!” That sounded like heaven. It was certainly all the encouragement Amber needed, and she was moving even before Roy. Naturally he immediately went charging past her, which turned into a race, which turned into the twins vanishing around a bend in the path, then coming back for her… And when they got to the lake, the water was cool and refreshing. All in all, it wasn’t a bad way to finish Turnover Day weekend. Home, however, was a different matter. It took hours to get back to the city and line up on Sagan Plaza, receive one last inspection and some words of encouragement and praise from Walker, and then…that was it. Their little adventure was done. Dan and Petra McKay turned up to take Roy and Nikki out for dinner somewhere, and all the other Rangers went home with their parents or whatever… Amber’s parents didn’t show up. She walked home alone. She was totally safe. The city wasn’t like cities back on Earth, which if the movies and stuff were to be believed had been full of muggers and other dangerous people just waiting to jump out at a lone pedestrian. They were probably exaggerating, but nobody ever got mugged on these streets. The militia responded instantly to any disturbance, because DANI saw all, heard all, knew all. That sounded a lot more sinister than it was. Probably. The shadows were long, now. The sun lamps were all the way down at the ship’s far end, and fading from daylight mode to moonlight. The heating was off too, cooling the air, slightly. Amber had no idea how accurate Dandelion’s simulated day cycle was compared to the real thing, but it didn’t feel wrong to her. She walked past bustling bars and took a detour through the park as she headed home, past the lingering scent of extinguished barbecues. The city was dense, tightly packed to fit as many people into as small a footprint as possible. There was only a finite amount of space on the biodeck after all, and it all needed to be used efficiently. Even the luxurious features like Mount Messier and the lake were there for practical reasons of training and recreation, to take the pressure off a hard-working populace. The towers and skyscrapers around her were so tall that the curvature of the ship’s hull narrowed the gap between them to mere cracks. Only the open park spaces and widest avenues enjoyed much “sunlight.” Down at ground level, the lighting came from shop hoardings and street lamps that, combined, gave the streets a cozy feel. She stuffed her communicator into her ear. They’d had it with them but turned off over the weekend, but now that she’d been dismissed, she could use it for something other than emergencies again. “They forgot me again, huh?” she asked aloud. Sure enough, DANI’s soft voice was sympathetic in her ear. “I am afraid they are engaged in another argument. I tried to remind them to come for you, but—” “But they told you to shut up?” “Yes.” There was a momentary pause, and when DANI started his next sentence, he was using exactly the tone of voice she’d predicted he would. “Amber—” Amber stopped dead in the street and aimed a glare down the street toward the huge painted ship’s emblem at the front of the biodeck. Behind that enormous metal wall was DANI’s central data center: In the absence of one of his avatars, it was the closest thing she could get to looking directly at him. “I told you, I don’t want to raise a complaint.” “I will respect your autonomy,” DANI replied diplomatically. Satisfied that was the best she was going to get on the subject, Amber started walking again. “They’re my parents,” she explained. “I am aware.” “And I love them,” Amber added belatedly. “As you say.” “DANI…” Amber sighed. “As you say” was DANI-speak for “Whatever.” “Forgive me. For what it is worth, I am quite sure they love you, too.” “They have a funny way of showing it,” Amber muttered, and scuffed her boot irritably on the pavement. “Can’t even come to fetch their own daughter…” “Would you like a drone taxi?” DANI offered. “No, thanks. I’m fine walking.” “As you wish. But I stand by my assessment. I am perfectly certain they remain married only because they think it is what is best for you.” “Great. They put up with each other because they think that’s what I need?” Amber shook her head. “Idiots.” “Amber…” “I know, I know…” She scuffed the other boot for balance. “But you make them sound like idiots when you put it that way.” “That was not my intent.” “I know, you were just trying to be reassuring.” Amber sighed and straightened up again. She could at least hold her head high for her walk of shame. One of DANI’s little drones finally showed up, zipping down from rooftop level to buzz along beside her. It projected a holographic avatar for him, which strolled at her side with its hands behind its back. DANI’s avatars interested Amber. He’d carefully chosen a slim and dapper appearance, with a thin chin and boyish face. Cute, rather than handsome. Maybe he wanted to seem harmless and meek, to try to offset some of the awesome power he held. Or maybe it was just one of those personal quirks he was so proud of. Either way, everybody knew what DANI “looked” like. “I stand by it,” he repeated. “They are enduring a marriage they both hate out of love for you. That they misunderstand your feelings does not change their intent.” “Idiots…” Amber muttered, though DANI’s opinion made her feel a little better. He “walked” with her in comfortable silence, all the way down the straight length of Herschel Road and into Keplerton, where her parents lived on Aldrin Avenue. It was a wide road, cheerfully lit by fairy lights strung between the venerable beech trees that lined it on either side. Apparently somebody had hung them up there in the early days of Dandelion’sflight, and they’d become a local landmark. DANI tutted as he noted that one of the strands was dark. Knowing him, it would be repaired within the hour. She stopped in front of her home block and stared up at the lit windows on the top floors for a moment. “DANI?” “Yes, Amber?” “Could you stick around while I deal with this?” He nodded solemnly and dissolved his avatar. The drone whined up into the darkness above and vanished among the fairy lights. “Of course.” Amber took a deep breath to steel herself, let herself in through the front door, and finally put her pack down with a relieved sigh as she stepped into the lift. Home was the top two floors of the block, the fifth and sixth. It was a simple arrangement—the laundry and stuff were on the ground floor, then each pair of floors above that was a two-story apartment big enough for a family of four. Fortunately for the neighbors, each apartment was soundproofed. Amber didn’t hear raised voices until she stepped off the lift and was confronted by their door. “Have they been shouting at each other this whole time?” “Yes, indeed.” Amber sighed and took her earpiece out; the apartment was fully equipped to let him hear and help her. DANI unlocked the door for her, and the robust conversation within stopped instantly. Jade and Alan Houston were standing in the middle of the kitchen, both wearing expressions that were either agitation with each other or embarrassment at being caught. Or both. Amber gave them both a carefully blank stare, then walked between them to put her pack away in the cupboard under the stairs. “I’m home,” she said. “Uh…welcome back,” Alan said after a second. “You walked this whole way?” Jade asked. Amber stowed her pack and returned to the front door to take her boots off. “Yup.” “Why didn’t you call? We would have come and—” “You knew exactly what time we were supposed to get back to the plaza,” Amber said. She wrenched her left boot off and put it away without looking at her. “And DANI tried to remind you.” “We, uh…we got to talking about—” Alan began, but the moment Amber had the other boot off she brushed past him and headed toward the stairs. “I’m tired. I’m going to take a hot bath.” “Amber—” Jade began. “You two have fun discussing whatever.” She trotted up the stairs, counting under her breath. She was nearly at the top when she heard a muttered, quiet comment in a bitter tone of voice from her mum, a sharp retort from her dad—and just like that, the argument was back on. A little quieter now, maybe, but… “Oh, for the Authors’ sakes…” she muttered, and tried to tune them out. “Hey, DANI, could you run a bath for me?” DANI’s voice spoke from the wall console. “Certainly.” “Thanks.” “Are you quite sure you would not like me to talk with them on your behalf?” Amber ducked into her bedroom to grab her pajamas and her favorite scented soap. Her mum had a bad habit of using it up if she left it in the bathroom. “No, thanks,” she repeated firmly. “As you wish. Your bath is nearly ready.” “Thanks.” Amber wasted no time getting out of her trail-stained and sweaty Ranger clothes, which went into the laundry hamper. She laid her pajamas out on the bed, grabbed her favorite fluffy towel from the top shelf of her wardrobe, and wrapped it around herself for the short trip to the bathroom. She had to hand it to DANI; he knew exactly how to draw the perfect bath. It was covered in a pillowy cloud of bubbles, and hot enough to make her hold her breath as she lowered herself into it. Therapeutically hot, but just shy of hurting. She sank until her ears were submerged and lay there for a while, listening to the muffled sound of water and her own breathing. It went some way toward relaxing her, at least. After a while she sat up, squeezed most of the water out of her hair, and scrubbed at her face as she listened carefully. “I don’t hear an argument any longer. Have they stopped?” “They have moved to separate rooms,” DANI explained. Amber nodded and grabbed her hair care basket. She was never able to properly look after her dense curls in the field on Ranger weekends, and she wasn’t looking forward to the minor pain she was about to endure, but…well. Better that than the agony of having a giant dreadlock to deal with later. “How’re the McKays?” “They are enjoying dinner at Sorrentino’s. Roy has just spilled red wine on his last remaining white linen shirt. I shall need to remind him he’s due for a fitting.” Dandelion didn’t technically have an age limit for drinking alcohol as was common on Earth, though under-eighteens needed a parent or guardian’s approval. That hardly stopped anyone, of course, but as long as people kept their cool, nobody made much of a fuss, and DANI didn’t grass to parents except in serious cases. Amber hadn’t been impressed by alcohol herself when she’d tried it—beer was too bitter, wine added flavors to perfectly good grape juice that she didn’t enjoy, and she had no idea why anybody would torture themselves with spirits. Her one evening of sampling different drinks had quickly resulted in her getting giggly and falling asleep. It had been fun, but she hadn’t really seen the point. “He never could handle alcohol,” she observed. “All that clean living I guess.” DANI chuckled. “Now his mother has told him to ‘stop whining.’” Amber smiled. Petra McKay had the best awful sense of humor. “Would you like to send them a message?” DANI asked. “No. I don’t want to bring them—nngh—down.” Amber grunted as she encountered a particularly difficult tangle, and realized she was going to need help. She gave up, set the basket aside, then lay back and shut her eyes to enjoy the warm water for a little while longer. Sometime later—she wasn’t sure how long—DANI got her attention with a polite beeping sound, and she realized the water had become tepid without her noticing. A quick inspection of her hands found them to be pruned and wrinkly beyond belief. “Did I fall asleep?” “You dozed.” With a sigh, Amber heaved herself out of the bath and was surprised to find she felt refreshed and awake. Feeling she ought to try to at least have some kind of a positive relationship with her parents, she rinsed quickly, dried herself off, changed into her pajamas, and took her hair basket downstairs toward the sound of movies. Jade was curled up on the couch with a glass of wine in hand, watching something soppy and heart-warming. She gave a strained, sad smile and made room. “How was the mountain?” “It was fun, mostly,” Amber said, sitting next to her. “I fell and grazed my knee—” “Again?” “And my hair’s a mess,” Amber added, “but apart from that, it was great.” Her mum nodded, grabbed the brush, and set to work. “I told the twins about my apprenticeship.” “You’re still going planetside?” “Yeah.” “How did they take it?” Amber sighed. “I made Nikki cry…” “Nikki? Crying?” Jade’s brush stopped for a second. “That must be a first.” Amber nodded. “Roy’s eyes watered up, too. They’re…supportive. You know how they can be about these sort of things.” Jade nodded. “You’re lucky. I wish I’d had friends like those two.” “Mm.” Amber nodded. She shut her eyes and enjoyed the sensation of her mum’s fingers working their clever magic all over her scalp. “I know they’re special to you,” Jade said after a few quiet minutes. “I don’t think you ever said why you’re willing to go down there and leave them behind.” “It’s…complicated.” “Amber, if it’s because of your father and me—” “Mum…I really don’t want to talk about that right now,” Amber said, mentally adding an “or ever.” She’d already said everything she was going to say to them about their endless fighting. There was no point in saying it again. “So it is because of—” “I said I don’t want to talk about it!” Amber snapped. “Please.” For a second she worried she’d gone too far and ruined the moment, but after pausing for a second, Jade heaved out a huge breath and kept brushing. “Alright.” They sat in slow and comfortable silence as Jade methodically brushed, combed, picked, and pinned all the tangles and knots out of the thick, curly hair they shared. Finally, she made a satisfied noise and put the tools back in the basket. “There,” she announced. “Done.” Amber nodded. Her head felt lighter somehow. And cleaner. “Thanks, Mum. I’d better say good night to Dad. I have school in the morning.” “Sure.” They traded cheek-kisses, and Amber left her to her movie. It was funny, in a way. She liked both her parents well enough on their own, but they brought out the worst in each other, and there were times when she found herself hating them collectively but loving them individually. Which made no sense, but… Her dad worked from home, but his office was always open to Amber. She knocked anyway and slipped inside when he called back, “Come on in, Mon Bijou!” It meant “my gem” in French. Every dad needed a nickname for his daughter, Amber had been named for a kind of gemstone, and Amber’s dad loved to play around with old languages, so… He wasn’t working right now. He was playing a single-player videogame of some kind, which he paused before half-turning his chair as she entered. “Hey.” “Hey.” “Look, Amber, I’m really sorry—” “Dad…” Amber sighed and sat down in the comfy armchair. “Let’s not start.” She really, really wanted to tell him she didn’t need an apology, she just needed a good reason to believe it would never happen again, but he couldn’t possibly give her one, so there was nothing to do except not have that conversation again. “What’re you playing?” she asked instead. “This? Oh, it’s a twenty-first century classic shoot-em-up.” “That sounds…violent?” “It is. Not for young eyes, sorry…How was rangering?” “Good!” Amber said, pleased to get onto more pleasant subjects. “It made me feel a lot more confident about being a colonist.” Alan nodded. Like the twins, he intended to stay on the ship when they arrived. He was an engineer, too, of a different stripe—an agricultural engineer. His job involved trotting all over the biodeck to maintain, certify, and repair the systems and machinery that kept their crops growing. Funny how a man so scatterbrained and irresponsible in his family life could be so successful at a job that carried such enormous responsibility. Maybe he expended it all at work and came home on an empty tank. “I don’t suppose you had any luck talking the twins into joining you?” he asked. Amber smiled, “They were tempted for a second, I think, but they’re right. They fit too well up here, doing what they do. I can’t take that from them…” Alan rolled his chair back from his desk and turned to face her completely. “You never have been totally happy here on the ship, have you? Ever since we first told you that yours is the generation to settle Newhome, you’ve been…restless.” Amber shrugged. She drew her feet up onto the chair beneath her and curled up comfortably. “Is that so weird?” she asked. “I mean, if you’re going to dangle something like that over me my whole life…” “No, it’s not weird. I’m actually immensely proud of you,” Alan said, to Amber’s surprise. “There’s a lot of people out there doing everything they can to dodge what this mission is all about. And sure, the ship will be an important part of the colony for decades, but…” “But there won’t be a colony if nobody goes down in the first wave.” “Exactly.” “You’re…really proud of me?” Amber asked. He’d never said that before. “Absolutely.” He smiled, though there was a sad undertone to it, and slid forward off his chair to kneel next to hers and give her a hug. “You’d better go to bed. Don’t you have school in the morning?” “Yeah…Bonne nuit, Papa.” He smiled and waved her goodnight. “Toi aussi, Mon Bijou.” With her duties thus tended to, Amber padded past the couch, traded good-nights with her mum, trotted up the stairs, and flung herself onto her bed to think. She wasn’t tired, really. Her little nap in the bath had woken her up, and she lay back to stare up at the glow-in-the-dark star stickers on her ceiling. Her dad had put them up there for her nearly ten years ago, carefully matching them to the constellations of Earth’s northern hemisphere. She’d once wondered which one was Newhome, only to learn that Newhome had been too faint to see with the naked eye from Earth. “That wasn’t so bad in the end.” DANI, as always, was happy to pick up a conversation from nowhere. “I confess, I was not listening. Privacy, you understand.” “Thanks. Um…is dad okay?” “As far as I know.” DANI sounded perplexed. “Why do you ask?” “He said he’s proud of me. I just…that seemed…I don’t know.” DANI simulated a “Hmm…” and a thoughtful pause for her benefit. “You couldn’t tell me if there was something wrong, huh?” Amber hazarded. “That’s correct. But no, I do not think there is any cause for alarm. If I had to guess, I believe your father is becoming acutely aware that his little girl is growing up and plans to leave home soon. That is a traumatic time for a father.” “I’ll be here for at least a year…” Amber pointed out. She rolled aside so she could pull the blankets out from under herself and wriggle under them. “The future is intimidating,” DANI said. Amber thought about that as she stared at her stars some more. “I guess…” she said slowly. “But isn’t that the point of an adventure?” “You long for adventure?” “I don’t know. I guess so?” Amber said, stifling a yawn. Her bed was far too comfortable. “I mean, what is an adventure?” “Classically, the hero leaves home and is thrust into the unknown, where they face and are transformed by a series of trials and temptations.” “The ‘leaves home’ part sounds nice…” Amber admitted with a sleepy mumble. “I’ve always felt it was a metaphor for life. Leaving home and being transformed by the world is normal, for humans. At the end of the cycle, the hero often returns home only to find that it is no longer the same to them. Sometimes they no longer fit comfortably there; sometimes they find they finally understand and are at peace.” “Hmm.” That was about all the reply Amber could muster. She thought she said something more, maybe. Or maybe it was a dream that crept up on her as she fell asleep. She did hear DANI wish her good night. Her dreams were filled with heroes. They were back at school the next day. She genuinely enjoyed it. She’d read once about how school had once been structured back on Earth, and it sounded awful as far as she was concerned. School on Dandelion wasn’t about sitting down in ranks and memorizing stuff, nor were there standardized tests or grades. The educators who’d first designed the shipboard curriculum a hundred years ago knew that people weren’t all identical robots—everybody learned differently, had their own interests and talents, and looked at the world their own way, so the system was designed to reflect that. It was structured like a game. There were missions, and trials, and challenges to face, and a sophisticated points system that let students and teachers alike track how they were progressing. Nobody could progress without covering certain essential basics, but the real fun was in confronting the higher-tier challenges and earning the rare achievements. In Amber’s case, it fed her passion for mathematics, history, languages…and people. As she’d gone through life and shown more interest in some subjects over others, DANI had taken note and helped her teachers supply her with an education that suited her individual tastes. Mostly that involved giving her books to read and then write a short report on. Other kids learned working skills in the workshop, or practiced their cooking, or played around with chemicals and lasers in the labs…Amber read. A lot. She guessed she was about halfway through the school library. After a weekend of hiking and doing ranger-y things in the woods, followed by the depressing reality of her home life, about the only thing she felt up to at school today was curling up in a corner and reading. She’d picked a book about The War. From what she’d read, Amber got the impression that pretty much every era in human history had a “the war,” a defining event in people’s lives, the big conflict that completely tore up the status quo and echoed through the generations to come…until the next “the war” arrived. Until then, every other conflict demanded a qualification. Some nickname like “the Vietnam war” or “the war on terror” or “the Martian-Belter war” to distinguish it from the current the war. But this “The War” had capital letters. And in the nearly four hundred years since its armistice, nothing had seized its crown. Its terminology remained fixed in modern language: The Great Madness, OGRE teams, the Long Exodus…the Bullet From the Black, the Nighttime of Reason, and the Seven Minute Slaughter. Then there were the Alt-Human colonists of the Jovian moons, divided into their specialist gene-strains: Apostles, their Shepherds and Knights, the Brutes, Adepts, and Nomads. They’d come in-system at the very height of the war, bearing the New Book, which in turn had kindled the Dawn of Humanity… And ultimately, barely, with the human species teetering on the very edge of self-inflicted extinction, they’d brought peace. Dandelion was their doing, too. They’d seen the solar system for what it was, a single tiny basket in a much bigger sky. They’d built the ship from the wreckage of the old order and sent her off with their fond hope that she would never return. Amber had to admit, it was enthralling. She felt kind of guilty about that, considering The War had been two decades of abject misery that had claimed billions of lives and left the human race a splintered fraction of its former glory…but it really made for a gripping read. At least, it did until she was interrupted by a huge, looming shadow. “Hey, Amber.” Amber lowered her U-tool and looked up. “Why is your shirt ruined?” Roy chuckled at her and thumped down into his favorite extra-big beanbag. His shirt at least wasn’t completely torn apart, but it had picked up a couple of rips and a burn mark. He looked pleased about it rather than irate, so it must have been something fun or worthwhile. “You hafta ask?” “Well, I figure you might learn some restraint eventually…” “What?” Roy laughed. “I like to play hard! What’s wrong with that?” “Ignore her, she’s being a troll again.” They looked up as Nikki joined them. She was almost looking better groomed than her brother for a change. “You have a mountain of sawdust in your hair,” Amber told her. Nikki grinned and flomped down next to her. “That’s what little friends with clever fingers are for,” she said. Amber rolled her eyes but obediently dug in her bag for a comb and began the process of getting little flecks of wood out of Nikki’s hair, which was fortunately a lot more manageable than Amber’s own mass of curls. Nikki’s was straight, and she wore it in a short and easily cleaned pixie cut. That was kind of the point; it would constantly get scorched, matted, caught on stuff, or covered in paint otherwise. “What were you making?” Amber asked as a shower of woody particles fell on her knees from the first pass of the comb. “Did you just chip up a whole log for fun?” “I made a rolling pin on the lathe!” Baking was one of Nikki’s few classically “girly” hobbies. Then again, all her hobbies involved making a mess. It didn’t seem to matter to her whether she wound up covered in flour, eggs, and chocolate; in sawdust, solvent, and glue; or in mud, sweat, and blood. She didn’t view it as a successful day unless she went home with something staining her clothes. Roy immediately looked hungry. “Ooh! What’re you gonna bake?” Nikki shrugged. “I don’t know yet. Sweet potato pie, maybe? Oh! Or maybe that recipe of gran’ma’s, the peach and goat’s cheese puff pastry with honey.” “Wouldn’t that be expensive? The goat cheese in particular…” Amber asked. “Throw off my macros, too…” Roy pointed out, though it looked like it caused him physical pain to admit it. He knew a lot about food—in fact, about the only time Amber ever saw him open a book was to delve into the arcane worlds of nutrition and anatomy. On Walker’s insistence, and a few hints from DANI, he’d also branched out to studying bush tucker and how to preserve food, because everybody was supposed to have a “colony skill” at Newhome, even the spacers. He’d also taken to raising chickens in their community green plot, “for the eggs.” But mostly he studied exercise, nutrition, and the role it played in keeping his body in top condition. It was amazing how much he ate, actually. He’d even talked DANI into giving him an increased allowance of natural beef credits, one of the few commodities onboard that was tightly rationed rather than being left to market forces. As long as he remained diligent with his studies, work, and training, Roy was allowed an extra three hundred grams of prime-grade hamburger every other day, and a large steak every week. That part especially made Amber super envious. “Ugh, you and your macronutrients again!” Nikki complained. “What? I’ve got the Olympic qualifiers comin’ up in like six months, and the regional meet in a few weeks. I gotta make weight!” “Don’t give me that line, lil’ bro.” Nikki rolled her eyes. She was the older by about twenty minutes, and calling him her “little brother” was a long-standing joke between them. “You’re already as big and dumb as a bus, and you’re so fatyou’re in the adult super-heavyweight bracket!” “Naw, muscle’s way heavier than fat! I’m too ripped!” Roy lifted his shirt and pinched up the thin skin clinging tight to his powerfully corrugated midriff. “See? Ain’t any on me!” He blew out his breath and rippled his eight-pack abs, just for fun. Amber giggled internally. There was almost nothing Roy enjoyed more than harmlessly showing off. Outwardly, of course, she always pretended to be tired of it, but secretly…Well, he wouldn’t have been himself without that particular quirk. “Fine, but there’s no way you’re gonna blow weight. You won’t even need to cut!” “Naw, I’m already twelve kilos over!” Roy boomed. He raised his arms and flexed his huge biceps until the seams of his ragged shirt tore. “See? Biggest on the ship I bet!” Okay, maybe it did get a little tiresome… Both Amber and Nikki rolled their eyes. “What-ever!” Nikki snorted. “You’re not gonna miss and you know it. You can afford some of my pie, you big meathead!” “Nuh-uh, because I don’t wanna worry about cutting too much weight, gotta keep super lean! Plus I want to fight Kyle ‘fer the gold; he’s almost as good as me!” Kyle Findale lived out in one of the farming towns clear on the other end of the biodeck, and in many ways he was Roy’s doppelgänger, the yin to his yang. Amber would have guessed that would make them bitter rivals, but they got along like a house on fire. Heaven help the McKays’ home when Kyle eventually paid a visit. “Whatever. You’ll still eat my pie,” Nikki predicted. Roy’s stomach growled, and he looked down at it with a scowl. “Traitor,” he muttered, and gave his belly an accusatory poke. “So…you’re going to blow all that money on one pie?” Amber asked. “Are you sure you want to do that?” “Oh come on, live a little! I haven’t had that peach pie in years.” Nikki sighed fondly. “I really miss—” Whatever she was about to say next was drowned out by an alarm. The school building had a few alarms. There was the one to mark session ends, the fire alarm—they’d all heard that one a few times, in fire drills—but it was also tapped into the ship-wide alarms. It wasn’t the hull-breach. If that alarm ever went off, it would basically mean everybody was already dead, or doomed. This one, though…this one held the silver medal for dreaded sounds. It was a mournful, all-encompassing whoop that bounced and echoed strangely around Dandelion’s cylindrical interior, and above it was DANI’s voice, ear-punchingly loud, with a resonant kick of bass to really sell the urgency of the situation. Amber noticed almost unconsciously how the twins had surged to their feet the instant the alarm sounded. She was still sitting listening to the announcement when Nikki grabbed her arm, hauled her up, and hustled her toward the emergency exit. It took her a few seconds before DANI’s words sunk in and made sense… But when they did, something cold dropped right down her spine.
“ALL HANDS REPORT TO YOUR EMERGENCY STATIONS. THIS IS NOT A DRILL. REPEAT: ALL HANDS TO EMERGENCY STATIONS. THIS IS NOT A DRILL…”
Did you enjoy it? As I said at the beginning, we intend to publish the entire story free-to-read over the coming months. That said, if you're impatient…
You could order the eBook from Amazon, and skip the wait. There's a hardcover and paperback version available too. It's also available from Indiebound, Barnes and Noble, and can be ordered at any local bookstore by ISBN: 978-17358787-0-6 for the hardcover, 978-17358787-2-0 if you prefer paperback.
In any case, we're simply happy to share the story with you, and we think you'll like it very much indeed. Anyway. Thank you very much for your attention and time. It means a lot to me, it really does. Thank you. [To Chapter 4]
No gods, no kings, only NOPE - or divining the future with options flows. [Part 3: Hedge Winding, Unwinding, and the NOPE]
Hello friends! We're on the last post of this series ("A Gentle Introduction to NOPE"), where we get to use all the Big Boy Concepts (TM) we've discussed in the prior posts and put them all together. Some words before we begin:
This post will be massively theoretical, in the sense that my own speculation and inferences will be largely peppered throughout the post. Are those speculations right? I think so, or I wouldn't be posting it, but they could also be incorrect.
I will briefly touch on using the NOPE this slide, but I will make a secondary post with much more interesting data and trends I've observed. This is primarily for explaining what NOPE is and why it potentially works, and what it potentially measures.
My advice before reading this is to glance at my prior posts, and either read those fully or at least make sure you understand the tl;drs: https://www.reddit.com/thecorporation/collection/27dc72ad-4e78-44cd-a788-811cd666e32a Depending on popular demand, I will also make a last-last post called FAQ, where I'll tabulate interesting questions you guys ask me in the comments! --- So a brief recap before we begin. Market Maker ("Mr. MM"): An individual or firm who makes money off the exchange fees and bid-ask spread for an asset, while usually trying to stay neutral about the direction the asset moves. Delta-gamma hedging: The process Mr. MM uses to stay neutral when selling you shitty OTM options, by buying/selling shares (usually) of the underlying as the price moves. Law of Surprise [Lily-ism]: Effectively, the expected profit of an options trade is zero for both the seller and the buyer. Random Walk: A special case of a deeper probability probability called a martingale, which basically models stocks or similar phenomena randomly moving every step they take (for stocks, roughly every millisecond). This is one of the most popular views of how stock prices move, especially on short timescales. Future Expected Payoff Function [Lily-ism]: This is some hidden function that every market participant has about an asset, which more or less models all the possible future probabilities/values of the assets to arrive at a "fair market price". This is a more generalized case of a pricing model like Black-Scholes, or DCF. Counter-party: The opposite side of your trade (if you sell an option, they buy it; if you buy an option, they sell it). Price decoherence ]Lily-ism]: A more generalized notion of IV Crush, price decoherence happens when instead of the FEPF changing gradually over time (price formation), the FEPF rapidly changes, due usually to new information being added to the system (e.g. Vermin Supreme winning the 2020 election). --- One of the most popular gambling events for option traders to play is earnings announcements, and I do owe the concept of NOPE to hypothesizing specifically about the behavior of stock prices at earnings. Much like a black hole in quantum mechanics, most conventional theories about how price should work rapidly break down briefly before, during, and after ER, and generally experienced traders tend to shy away from playing earnings, given their similar unpredictability. Before we start: what is NOPE? NOPE is a funny backronym from Net Options Pricing Effect, which in its most basic sense, measures the impact option delta has on the underlying price, as compared to share price. When I first started investigating NOPE, I called it OPE (options pricing effect), but NOPE sounds funnier. The formula for it is dead simple, but I also have no idea how to do LaTeX on reddit, so this is the best I have: https://preview.redd.it/ais37icfkwt51.png?width=826&format=png&auto=webp&s=3feb6960f15a336fa678e945d93b399a8e59bb49 Since I've already encountered this, put delta in this case is the absolute value (50 delta) to represent a put. If you represent put delta as a negative (the conventional way), do not subtract it; add it. To keep this simple for the non-mathematically minded: the NOPE today is equal to the weighted sum (weighted by volume) of the delta of every call minus the delta of every put for all options chains extending from today to infinity. Finally, we then divide that number by the # of shares traded today in the market session (ignoring pre-market and post-market, since options cannot trade during those times). Effectively, NOPE is a rough and dirty way to approximate the impact of delta-gamma hedging as a function of share volume, with us hand-waving the following factors:
To keep calculations simple, we assume that all counter-parties are hedged. This is obviously not true, especially for idiots who believe theta ganging is safe, but holds largely true especially for highly liquid tickers, or tickers will designated market makers (e.g. any ticker in the NASDAQ, for instance).
We assume that all hedging takes place via shares. For SPY and other products tracking the S&P, for instance, market makers can actually hedge via futures or other options. This has the benefit for large positions of not moving the underlying price, but still makes up a fairly small amount of hedges compared to shares.
Winding and Unwinding
I briefly touched on this in a past post, but two properties of NOPE seem to apply well to EER-like behavior (aka any binary catalyst event):
NOPE measures sentiment - In general, the options market is seen as better informed than share traders (e.g. insiders trade via options, because of leverage + easier to mask positions). Therefore, a heavy call/put skew is usually seen as a bullish sign, while the reverse is also true.
NOPE measures system stability
I'm not going to one-sentence explain #2, because why say in one sentence what I can write 1000 words on. In short, NOPE intends to measure sensitivity of the system (the ticker) to disruption. This makes sense, when you view it in the context of delta-gamma hedging. When we assume all counter-parties are hedged, this means an absolutely massive amount of shares get sold/purchased when the underlying price moves. This is because of the following: a) Assume I, Mr. MM sell 1000 call options for NKLA 25C 10/23 and 300 put options for NKLA 15p 10/23. I'm just going to make up deltas because it's too much effort to calculate them - 30 delta call, 20 delta put. This implies Mr. MM needs the following to delta hedge: (1000 call options * 30 shares to buy for each) [to balance out writing calls) - (300 put options * 20 shares to sell for each) = 24,000net shares Mr. MM needs to acquire to balance out his deltas/be fully neutral. b) This works well when NKLA is at $20. But what about when it hits $19 (because it only can go down, just like their trucks). Thanks to gamma, now we have to recompute the deltas, because they've changed for both the calls (they went down) and for the puts (they went up). Let's say to keep it simple that now my calls are 20 delta, and my puts are 30 delta. From the 24,000 net shares, Mr. MM has to now have: (1000 call options * 20 shares to have for each) - (300 put options * 30 shares to sell for each) = 11,000 shares. Therefore, with a $1 shift in price, now to hedge and be indifferent to direction, Mr. MM has to go from 24,000 shares to 11,000 shares, meaning he has to sell 13,000 shares ASAP, or take on increased risk. Now, you might be saying, "13,000 shares seems small. How would this disrupt the system?" (This process, by the way, is called hedge unwinding) It won't, in this example. But across thousands of MMs and millions of contracts, this can - especially in highly optioned tickers - make up a substantial fraction of the net flow of shares per day. And as we know from our desk example, the buying or selling of shares directly changes the price of the stock itself. This, by the way, is why the NOPE formula takes the shape it does. Some astute readers might notice it looks similar to GEX, which is not a coincidence. GEX however replaces daily volume with open interest, and measures gamma over delta, which I did not find good statistical evidence to support, especially for earnings. So, with our example above, why does NOPE measure system stability? We can assume for argument's sake that if someone buys a share of NKLA, they're fine with moderate price swings (+- $20 since it's NKLA, obviously), and in it for the long/medium haul. And in most cases this is fine - we can own stock and not worry about minor swings in price. But market makers can't* (they can, but it exposes them to risk), because of how delta works. In fact, for most institutional market makers, they have clearly defined delta limits by end of day, and even small price changes require them to rebalance their hedges. This over the whole market adds up to a lot shares moving, just to balance out your stupid Robinhood YOLOs. While there are some tricks (dark pools, block trades) to not impact the price of the underlying, the reality is that the more options contracts there are on a ticker, the more outsized influence it will have on the ticker's price. This can technically be exactly balanced, if option put delta is equal to option call delta, but never actually ends up being the case. And unlike shares traded, the shares representing the options are more unstable, meaning they will be sold/bought in response to small price shifts. And will end up magnifying those price shifts, accordingly.
NOPE and Earnings
So we have a new shiny indicator, NOPE. What does it actually mean and do? There's much literature going back to the 1980s that options markets do have some level of predictiveness towards earnings, which makes sense intuitively. Unlike shares markets, where you can continue to hold your share even if it dips 5%, in options you get access to expanded opportunity to make riches... and losses. An options trader betting on earnings is making a risky and therefore informed bet that he or she knows the outcome, versus a share trader who might be comfortable bagholding in the worst case scenario. As I've mentioned largely in comments on my prior posts, earnings is a special case because, unlike popular misconceptions, stocks do not go up and down solely due to analyst expectations being meet, beat, or missed. In fact, stock prices move according to the consensus market expectation, which is a function of all the participants' FEPF on that ticker. This is why the price moves so dramatically - even if a stock beats, it might not beat enough to justify the high price tag (FSLY); even if a stock misses, it might have spectacular guidance or maybe the market just was assuming it would go bankrupt instead. To look at the impact of NOPE and why it may play a role in post-earnings-announcement immediate price moves, let's review the following cases:
Stock Meets/Exceeds Market Expectations (aka price goes up) - In the general case, we would anticipate post-ER market participants value the stock at a higher price, pushing it up rapidly. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the positive move since:
a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worthless (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares, buying them, and pushing the stock price up. b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of puts are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of calls are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares AND also buy more shares to cover their calls, pushing the stock price up. 2) Stock Meets/Misses Market Expectations (aka price goes down)- Inversely to what I mentioned above, this should push to the stock price down, fairly immediately. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the negative move since: a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down. b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of calls are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of puts are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell even more shares to keep their calls and puts neutral, pushing the stock price down. --- Based on the above two cases, it should be a bit more clear why NOPE is a measure of sensitivity to system perturbation. While we previously discussed it in the context of magnifying directional move, the truth is it also provides a directional bias to our "random" walk. This is because given a price move in the direction predicted by NOPE, we expect it to be magnified, especially in situations of price decoherence. If a stock price goes up right after an ER report drops, even based on one participant deciding to value the stock higher, this provides a runaway reaction which boosts the stock price (due to hedging factors as well as other participants' behavior) and inures it to drops.
NOPE and NOPE_MAD
I'm going to gloss over this section because this is more statistical methods than anything interesting. In general, if you have enough data, I recommend using NOPE_MAD over NOPE. While NOPE in theory represents a "real" quantity (net option delta over net share delta), NOPE_MAD (the median absolute deviation of NOPE) does not. NOPE_MAD simply answecompare the following:
How exceptional is today's NOPE versus historic baseline (30 days prior)?
How do I compare two tickers' NOPEs effectively (since some tickers, like TSLA, have a baseline positive NOPE, because Elon memes)? In the initial stages, we used just a straight numerical threshold (let's say NOPE >= 20), but that quickly broke down. NOPE_MAD aims to detect anomalies, because anomalies in general give you tendies.
I might add the formula later in Mathenese, but simply put, to find NOPE_MAD you do the following:
Calculate today's NOPE score (this can be done end of day or intraday, with the true value being EOD of course)
Calculate the end of day NOPE scores on the ticker for the previous 30 trading days
Compute the median of the previous 30 trading days' NOPEs
Find today's deviation as compared to the MAD calculated by: [(today's NOPE) - (median NOPE of last 30 days)] / (median absolute deviation of last 30 days)
This is usually reported as sigma (σ), and has a few interesting properties:
The mean of NOPE_MAD for any ticker is almost exactly 0.
[Lily's Speculation's Speculation] NOPE_MAD acts like a spring, and has a tendency to reverse direction as a function of its magnitude. No proof on this yet, but exploring it!
Using the NOPE to predict ER
So the last section was a lot of words and theory, and a lot of what I'm mentioning here is empirically derived (aka I've tested it out, versus just blabbered). In general, the following holds true:
3 sigma NOPE_MAD tends to be "the threshold": For very low NOPE_MAD magnitudes (+- 1 sigma), it's effectively just noise, and directionality prediction is low, if not non-existent. It's not exactly like 3 sigma is a play and 2.9 sigma is not a play; NOPE_MAD accuracy increases as NOPE_MAD magnitude (either positive or negative) increases.
NOPE_MAD is only useful on highly optioned tickers: In general, I introduce another parameter for sifting through "candidate" ERs to play: option volume * 100/share volume. When this ends up over let's say 0.4, NOPE_MAD provides a fairly good window into predicting earnings behavior.
NOPE_MAD only predicts during the after-market/pre-market session: I also have no idea if this is true, but my hunch is that next day behavior is mostly random and driven by market movement versus earnings behavior. NOPE_MAD for now only predicts direction of price movements right between the release of the ER report (AH or PM) and the ending of that market session. This is why in general I recommend playing shares, not options for ER (since you can sell during the AH/PM).
NOPE_MAD only predicts direction of price movement: This isn't exactly true, but it's all I feel comfortable stating given the data I have. On observation of ~2700 data points of ER-ticker events since Mar 2019 (SPY 500), I only so far feel comfortable predicting whether stock price goes up (>0 percent difference) or down (<0 price difference). This is +1 for why I usually play with shares.
Some statistics: #0) As a baseline/null hypothesis, after ER on the SPY500 since Mar 2019, 50-51% price movements in the AH/PM are positive (>0) and ~46-47% are negative (<0). #1) For NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma, roughly 68% of price movements are positive after earnings. #2) For NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, roughly 29% of price movements are positive after earnings. #3) When using a logistic model of only data including NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma or NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, and option/share vol >= 0.4 (around 25% of all ERs observed), I was able to achieve 78% predictive accuracy on direction.
Caveats/Read This
Like all models, NOPE is wrong, but perhaps useful. It's also fairly new (I started working on it around early August 2020), and in fact, my initial hypothesis was exactly incorrect (I thought the opposite would happen, actually). Similarly, as commenters have pointed out, the timeline of data I'm using is fairly compressed (since Mar 2019), and trends and models do change. In fact, I've noticed significantly lower accuracy since the coronavirus recession (when I measured it in early September), but I attribute this mostly to a smaller date range, more market volatility, and honestly, dumber option traders (~65% accuracy versus nearly 80%). My advice so far if you do play ER with the NOPE method is to use it as following:
Buy/short shares approximately right when the market closes before ER. Ideally even buying it right before the earnings report drops in the AH session is not a bad idea if you can.
Sell/buy to close said shares at the first sign of major weakness (e.g. if the NOPE predicted outcome is incorrect).
Sell/buy to close shares even if it is correct ideally before conference call, or by the end of the after-market/pre-market session.
Only play tickers with high NOPE as well as high option/share vol.
--- In my next post, which may be in a few days, I'll talk about potential use cases for SPY and intraday trends, but I wanted to make sure this wasn't like 7000 words by itself. Cheers. - Lily
Will the Minnesota Vikings win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
The 2019 season had mitigated success for the Vikings. They secured the #6 seed in the NFC before pulling a huge upset win in overtime in New Orleans. The offense completely stalled the following week in San Francisco, though. The franchise has not gone through a losing season in five years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has really done a good job. Can the team take a forward leap and make it further into the playoffs? The team has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Kirk Cousins has received more criticism than praise since signing a huge contract with the Vikings a couple of years ago. Yet, the team posted an 18-13-1 record and Cousins has thrown 56 TD passes versus 16 interceptions. His completion rate has been excellent over those two years: 69.7% (among the best of his career). The reprimand concerned more the lack of playoff wins than the level of play itself. He cleared a hurdle by leading his team to a big playoff upset in New Orleans last season, thanks to a 4-year TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in overtime. However, he followed it up with a horrific performance in San Francisco. Don’t be misled by his 21-of-29 passes completed during the game. Minnesota flirted with the postseason record for fewest first downs in a game; they only got 7 and totaled 147 yards of offense. Still, based on PFF grades, 2019 was Cousins’ best career season. He ranked as the #6 QB in the league with an 84.1 mark. Sean Mannion will once again back up Cousins. He’s clearly not the best #2 quarterback in the league. Cousins has been extremely durable throughout his career, and the Vikes hope it stays that way. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) In my 2019 NFC North preview, I mentioned how I believed Dalvin Cook was one of the most underrated players in the league. He had only rushed for 354 and 615 yards in his first two seasons, but he had passed my eye test. I knew that, barring injuries, he would breakout as one of the top backs in the league. He did enjoy a nice 2020 season with 1,135 rushing yards and 519 receiving yards, while racking up 13 touchdowns. Two things raise some concerns about him, though. First, his lengthy injury history. He seems to get nicked up often. Secondly, his play tailed off quite a bit towards the end of the season. During the first eight games of the season, he rushed 156 times for 823 yards, which was good for a lofty 5.3 average. However, over his final six meetings (including the playoffs) he carried the ball 84 times for 256 yards, a meager 3.0 average. After being selected in the 3rd round of the draft out of Boise State, Alexander Mattison showed promise in his first year as a pro. He had 100 rushing attempts for 462 yards, a nice 4.6 yards-per-carry average. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Cook goes down. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) The Vikings had one of the most talented WR duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They caught 113 and 102 passes, respectively, during the 2018 season. Those figures regressed to 30 and 63 last year. Thielen only played 10 games, but he was still on pace for just 48 receptions. What was the problem? In 2018, Minnesota had the 6th-highest number of passing attempts. In 2019, that rank dropped to 30th ! That being said, the team traded Diggs to Buffalo. He expressed frustration with Cousins and they didn’t seem to be on the same page. In order to compensate for that loss, GM Rick Spielman signed Tajae Sharpe, formerly of the Titans. He will fight for the #2 role opposite Thielen. The former fifth-rounder posted decent numbers in his first three years in the league. He used to be a starter, but his playing time got cut after Tennessee drafted A.J. Brown and signed Adam Humphries. Sharpe seems to be destined to be a #2 or #3 receiver in the NFL. The team also has high hopes for first-round rookie Justin Jefferson. He was very productive at LSU and he ranked second in 15+ yard receptions over the last two seasons (only Jerry Jeudy beat him). He wasn’t spectacular as an outside target, but he had a monster season playing in the slot last year. He’s great with contested catches and has a good shot to become an immediate starter. Bisi Johnson took advantage of Chad Beebe’s injury to grab the number three role last year. The 7th round rookie posted a 31-294-3 stat line, which was “okay”, but he seems like a long shot to become a true starter. The team finally pulled the plug on the failed Laquon Treadwell experiment. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being the #23 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He signed a contract with the Falcons in the offseason. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) The Kyle Rudolph – Irv Smith combo is very solid. Both guys played all 16 games with Rudolph recording slightly better numbers. He hauled in 39 passes for 367 yards and 6 TDs, while Smith’s numbers were 36-311-2. Rudolph made some highlight reel catches, his most important one being the game-winning TD catch in overtime in New Orleans. Smith is expected to expand his role in the offense with one year of experience under his belt and Diggs off the team. He showed very nice potential despite the Vikings relying very often on the running game. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) This unit allowed the sixth-fewest sacks in the league, but that wasn’t necessarily a great accomplishment given the offense ran the ball so often. Overall, this is an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line. Here is a rundown of each starter’s PFF rankings:
Garrett Bradbury, 30th out of 37 centers;
Brian O’Neill, 33rd out of 81 tackles;
Riley Reiff, 38th out of 81 tackles;
Pat Elflein, 39th out of 81 guards;
Josh Kline, 26th out of 81 guards.
Bradbury and O’Neill were the youngest guys as first- and second-year players. It’s worth noting that O’Neill definitely improved the quality of his play from year one to year two. Riley Reiff was a candidate for release considering his big contract, which is not in sync with his on-field performance. He’s clearly not among the top left tackles in the league. After an atrocious 2018 season, Pat Elflein did better last year. He is in his mid-twenties and should remain an adequate starter (albeit, not a great one). Josh Kline was let go by the Vikings, possibly because of cap reasons and the fact he was now on the wrong side of 30. Still, this is a bit of a surprising move given the team’s lack of depth. 2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia or career journeyman Dakota Dozier will be fighting for Kline’s spot. The Vikings selected a late riser in the second round of this year’s draft: Ezra Cleveland. He played over 95% of the snaps in three years with Boise State. He is mobile and very athletic. He seems like Riley Reiff’s heir apparent (who seems likely to be released next offseason). 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The starting lineup remains fairly intact with 9-of-11 starters returning. The QB, RB and TE positions should provide similar production in 2020. The WR position took a hit with the loss of Stefon Diggs, a very dangerous playmaker. He was among the best in contested catches. Acquiring a borderline starter like Tajae Sharpe won’t be enough to replace him. Let’s hope rookie Justin Jefferson can have an impact right away. On the offensive line, Bradbury and O’Neill may take a leap given their young age. However, Josh Kline leaving the team is hardly good news. Accordingly, I expect Minnesota’s offense to fall a little bit. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left the team to take over as Cleveland’s head coach, but the system will remain the same under new OC Gary Kubiak. The latter oversaw the offense from the coaches box last year, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult. Last year, the Vikings offense scored the eight-most points in the league, and I predict this year’s ranking to lie between the 10th and 16th spot. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) The best interior defender for the Vikings was clearly Linval Joseph. Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Vikings had to release him. A few days later, Minnesota signed Michael Pierce. The former Raven performed at a very similar level as Joseph, but he is four years younger. The run-stuffing nose tackle’s acquisition has to be viewed as a bit of a positive for the Vikings defense. The other guys seeing time on the interior of the defensive line aren’t very good. Both Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson finished way below-average according to the PFF grading system. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) The Vikings had one of the most fearsome DE duo with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. They racked up 14.5 and 8 sacks, respectively. Casual fans probably know who Danielle Hunter is. But they don’t realize how good he is; he doesn’t get enough credit, possibly due to playing in a smaller market. If you look at the numbers, he’s been a beast. Did you know he became the youngest player in NFL history to reach the 50-sack mark? He picked up 14.5 sacks in each of the past two years, and he has averaged 10.9 over his five-year career. The former LSU player was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft! Everson Griffen is getting older at 32 years old. At the time of writing, he has yet to sign with a team. He is very likely to find a suitor, but all signs point towards him leaving Minnesota. That will leave a void for sure. Griffen has averaged 8.8 sacks during the last eight seasons. He has spent his entire 10-year career with the Vikings and has missed very few games. He’s a true warrior. So, who will take Griffen’s spot? Stephen Weatherly was a key reserve for the team last year, but he left for Carolina. Is Ifeadi Odenigbo ready to pick up the slack? He came out of nowhere to record seven sacks last year! After being chosen in the 7th round of the 2017 draft, Odenigbo barely played any snaps in his first two seasons. I seriously doubt he can be the long-term answer and I believe last year’s seven sacks were an outlier. 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Eric Kendricks had one of the most improbable seasons last year. His PFF marks had varied between 59 and 69 since entering the league five years ago. Then, he earned a jaw-dropping 90.1 grade in 2019, which put him as the second-best linebacker in the entire league. He didn’t do much as a pass rusher, but he was great defending the run and covering people. Anthony Barr had a subpar year and finished as a below-average LB according to ProFootballFocus. He’s been a steady producer, but his grades have been all over the place during his six-year career. He received his second-lowest mark in 2019. Eric Wilson has been a reserve player since joining the league in 2017. He’ll likely have a similar role in the upcoming season. He did show adequate skills last year. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Wow, a lot of shuffling has taken place with Minnesota’s secondary during the offseason. Both 2019 starters, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, are gone to other teams. And their primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, also signed with another squad. Ouch. Waynes never played at the level of a #11 overall pick, but he yielded steady play during his five-year stint with the Vikings. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year, and he repeatedly finished slightly above-average among all CBs. He’s the guy the team will miss the most. Let’s face the reality: Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst corners in the league last year. His play took a big hit in 2018, and things got even worse in 2019. He really needed a chance of scenery; perhaps joining the Colts will rejuvenate his career. As for Mackensie Alexander, I feel like the team should have tried harder to keep him. His first two seasons were difficult after getting drafted in the 2nd round out of Clemson, but his last couple of years were much more promising. He could have rendered some valuable services to a team that had just lost its two starters. The door is now wide open for 2018 first-rounder Mike Hughes. The jury is still out on whether he can assume a starting role in the NFL, but I guess we’ll find out very soon. The Vikings decided to address the glaring hole at the position by selecting Jeff Gladney with the 31st overall pick in this year’s draft. Gladney is a sound tackler and a good blitzer too. He was a four-year starter out of TCU, where he was one of just two players with at least 15 passes defended in each of the past two years. However, he has a lengthy injury history. 3.5 Safeties (S) Harrison Smith is a perennial All-Pro safety. He’s been racking up tackles and interceptions throughout his eight-year tenure in the NFL. Averaging close to 3 picks per season over such a long span is impressive. Talk about defying the odds. Anthony Harris went undrafted five years ago. Fast-forward to today, and he’s received 89.0 and 91.1 grades from PFF the last two seasons. He finished as the top safety in the NFL out of 87 qualifiers. In other words, the Vikings may have the best safety duo in the NFL. The only bad news is they lost depth when both Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse left via free agency. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce is a small gain for this Vikings defense, in my opinion. That’s about it for the good news for this unit. Stud pass rusher Everson Griffen seems destined to leave the team, and one of their main backups, Stephen Weatherly signed with the Panthers. At linebacker, I don’t mean to be a party pooper, but Kendricks is very unlikely to match his 2019 performance. He had been an average LB for four years; I doubt the switch suddenly went on and that he will keep being a top 5 linebacker in the NFL. Last year’s top three CBs are gone, as well as two backups at the safety position. As of now, the team hasn’t signed any free agent to replace them. This is not a surprise, considering the bad cap situation the team is in. They drafted a few guys, including Jeff Gladney late in the first round, but their impact remains to be seen. Many new faces on defense, plus a drop in talent invariably equals a big downgrade. The team allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year; they’ll be lucky if they finish above-average in 2020. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? I'll answer this question via two different methods. 4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Vikings' 16 games): OVER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 72%
Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
ROI: +31.5%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 28%
Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
ROI: -33.1%
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins 4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads Here is the methodology I used here:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Vikings won more or less than 8.5 games.
Here are the results: OVER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 63.1%
Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
ROI: +15.2%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
Estimated Probability: 36.9%
Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
ROI: -11.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Vikings’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -9 vs CAR, -4 vs CHI, -2.5 vs DAL, -7 vs DET, -3 vs GB, -11.5 vs JAX, -3.5 vs TEN.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. Tomorrow I'll preview the Dallas Cowboys! Professor MJ
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